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Hussain (not his real name), 50, lives in Bogri Chang village-tract, Buthidaung, in Arakan State, western Burma. He and other Rohingya have been facing difficulty growing paddy and other essential crops because of confiscation of their lands by Burmese authorities.




Lands belonging to Rohingya villagers in Arakan State are routinely confiscated by the Burmese military


Hussain recently told Kaladan News that his lands were confiscated by Military Battalion No. 552 of Thanganet, under Taung Bazar area, Buthidaung Township, in June 2011.

“Seven out of our 32 acres of farmland were seized from me and my family by the personnel of Battalion No. 552.”

“After seizing the land, the military planted rubber saplings on our land without giving any compensation to us, even though there is plenty of wild land suitable for turning into rubber plantations.”

“I have eleven family members, including three sons and six daughters. My eldest son has just completed matriculation from Taung Bazar High School. However, I can’t afford to send my son for higher studies at Akyab (Sittwe) University because of our family’s financial situation.”

Hussain is a teacher at a local Islamic religious school (Madrasa), and he receives only 10,000 Kyat support from the Madrasa per month, which is not enough to sustain his family. The Madrasa is administered by local villagers, and there is little prospect that they will be able to increase the amount of support, he said.

“The authorities impose various kinds of restrictions on the Arakanese Rohingya, including restriction of movement. If anyone wants to go from one place to another, he/she needs to apply for a travel pass from the local Nasaka authority.”

Like Hussain, many Rohingya’s lands have been confiscated and handed over to make homes for Natala settlers, ‘model villagers’ who are encouraged to settle in northern Arakan State from other areas in Burma. The authorities also build Buddhist pagodas on the confiscated lands.

In the winter months, Rohingya farmers traditionally cultivate betel leaves on their lands in Bogri Chang village, but the captain of Military Battalion No. 552 has begun extorting Kyat 40,000 to 50,000 per acre from local farmers, said another villager on condition of anonymity.

If any farmer is unable to pay money to the captain, his betel farm will be destroyed by the army, the villager said.

Some of the betel farm owners who have lost their farmlands include Abu Sayed (50), Mohamed Siddik (53), and Hussain Ahamed (33). Their betel fields were destroyed during the third week of October 2011 because they were unable to pay money to the military officer. They all belong to the said village.

“Now, they are facing many difficulties to support their family members, as they have no alternative earning sources.”

“Besides, the streams or brooks where water comes out from mountain walls are also controlled by Army Battalion No. 552. During winter, some Rohingya farmers want to grow extra paddy, but they have no lands to cultivate because so much land near the mountain areas has been confiscated by the army. The military earns money by leasing these lands back to Rohingya farmers for Kyat 15,000 per acre.

Another Rohingya villager in Bogri Change named Nurul Haque (55) was the owner of seven acres of farmland, but all of his land was confiscated by the military in 2010. Currently, he is landless and very poor. He and his older children struggle to find ways to support the eight-member family, said a local elder who declined to be named.

“Just a few months ago, Nurul Haque’s eldest son went to a nearby mountain to collect firewood, but on his way home he was halted by military personnel who seized all of his firewood. So, his son could not sell it, and therefore had no money to purchase food, so all the family members starved that night.”

“Like Nurul Haque’s family members, many Rohingya people are starving because of the army.”

Rohingya minority people do not have citizenship status in Arakan State. They often lack access to basic public services, including health, sanitation, and education, sources said.

Between 1991 and 1992, over 250,000 Rohingya refugees arrived in neighboring Bangladesh because of religious and political persecutions, and other human rights abuses in their homeland, such as forced labor, restrictions on movement, marriage, and education, as well as land confiscation, arbitrary arrest, and extortion.

“We Rohingya hoped to get some concessions from Burmese authorities after the 2010 elections, including freedom of movement, access to medical facilities, education facilities, and the equal rights enjoyed by other ethnic groups,” a former Rohingya politician said in a recent interview.

The politician said that he is concerned about the future of the Rohingya in Arakan State as many forms of harassment and human rights abuses continue unabated more than one year after President Thein Sein’s nominally civilian-led government took office.

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By Vishal Arora

Attacks on Christians in Burma continued into the Christmas season in Kachin state as Burmese Army troops killed a civilian and destroyed church property despite President Thein Sein’s order to stop the war against insurgents.

A Baptist church in Loije, Bhamo district, held a funeral on Dec. 27 for 47-year-old Maran Zau Ja, who was shot dead without provocation by Burmese Army ’s Light Infantry Battalion No. 321 on Christmas Day, a Kachin source told Compass by phone.

Zau Ja was a farmer who was returning from his sugarcane field with a friend when troops sprayed bullets at them. His friend survived the gunshots.

The two were not armed insurgents of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the armed wing of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) that has fought for autonomy in the Christian-majority state since the early 1960s, when then-Burmese Prime Minister U Nu made Buddhism the state religion.

About 90 percent of the roughly 56 million people in Burma, also known as Myanmar, are Buddhist, mostly from the Burman ethnic group. Burmese soldiers see “all Kachin civilians as the enemy,” the Kachin News Group recently quoted a Kachin village elder as saying.

On Dec. 16, troops of Light Infantry Battalion No. 142 burned a building housing the kitchen of a Baptist church in Dingga village, also in Bhamo district, the source added. KIA men and local villagers managed to save the church building, but the fire engulfed five homes.

Earlier, on Nov. 30, Burmese soldiers killed a woman and injured six villagers as they fired mortar shells targeting civilians in Tarlawgyi area in Waingmaw Township, while another battalion burned down 10 homes in Nam Wai village and five more in neighboring Hpa Ke village.

On Oct. 16, about 150 soldiers from Light Infantry Battalion 438 stormed Nam San Yang village in the Daw Phung Yang area of Bhamo district and opened fire at members of a Catholic church before the weekly mass. While no one was hurt, the priest and some parishioners were detained.

Thailand-based activist Shirley Seng of the Kachin Women’s Association told Compass that civilians have been living in fear since military action hit Kachin state last June, and that her research team found that women and children were most affected by the war. At least 37 women and girls were raped during the first two months of the conflict, she said – 13 of them killed.

She added that other girls and women continue to be abducted.

“They just disappear after being abducted,” Seng said. “Perhaps they are first sexually abused and then killed or sold to brothels.”

President’s Sham Order

The KIO controls most of Kachin state and runs schools and hospitals and the public distribution system. The Burmese government or Army has little control outside the state capital of Myitkyina. Since June 2011, however, when the Army ended a 17-year-long ceasefire with the KIO, government troops were heavily deployed in KIO-controlled areas leading to clashes.

More than 90 clashes have occurred between the Army and the armed insurgents since President Sein, a former junta general, reportedly instructed the military on Dec. 10 to start no fighting with the KIA.

The president’s order was apparently a mere show, the Kachin source said, adding that deployment of Army personnel and attacks on civilians were on the rise and helicopters were bringing in ammunition and reinforcements.

“The government made peace with [formerly detained opposition leader] Aung San Suu Kyi and has set a few political prisoners free to gain concessions from the international community on its brutal military offensive against ethnic minority states, primarily in Kachin,” the source said.

After the general election in 2011, believed to be rigged and the first in two decades of junta rule, the military’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party came to power and has been trying to showcase reforms in an attempt to end economic sanctions and gain legitimacy.

Little has changed, however, for Burma’s ethnic minorities.

Internally Displaced People

According to local estimates, the military conflict has displaced about 45,000 people.

“It’s a major threat to thousands of displaced civilians who are caught between the warring parties,” Lynn Yoshikawa, an advocate from the Washington, D.C.-based Refugees International, told Compass by email. “The Burma Army does not distinguish between combatants and civilians, leading to severe human rights abuses. There is not enough assistance, and with winter setting in, displaced people lack enough warm clothes and are more vulnerable to diseases.”

Yoshikawa urged the international community “to put pressure on the military to follow the president’s orders to halt attacks against the KIO and make sure that the UN’s access to areas outside government control is sustained and expanded to meet the growing needs.” International donors should fund the humanitarian response, she added, or else the United Nations World Food Program’s food stocks will run out in February.

In addition to Kachin, six other ethnic minority states – including Christian-majority Chin state and Karen state, which has a substantial presence of Christians – have had armed and unarmed groups fighting for autonomy from the successive military-led regimes for decades.

While Kachin is the current target of the Burma Army , it is feared that other states are also likely to face war in the near future. Ethnic minority areas along Burma’s borders with India, Thailand and China are resource-rich and have strategic importance for the Union government. Burma’s neighbors have invested, and intend to accelerate investment, in power generation and other projects in and around the ethnic minority region.

The ethnic minority states were administered separately during British rule. Some ethnic leaders agreed to incorporate their states into Burma after the Panglong Agreement was signed in 1947 providing for full autonomy, a share of the national wealth and the right to secession to ethnic states. But Gen. Aung San, democracy activist Suu Kyi’s father who was then heading the interim government and led the signing of the agreement, was assassinated months later. Subsequent regimes refused to honor the agreement and forcibly made ethnic states a part of the new country.

The federal government is carrying on with the military offensive on the one hand, and holding “peace talks” with armed ethnic minority resistance groups on the other, the Kachin source said. Minorities are still praying and hoping for peace in the near future, he added.

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"If reforms continue we are ready to build a new relationship with Burma"

Foreign Secretary William Hague writes about his historic visit to Burma on 5-6 January.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague
 
The Foreign Secretary has concluded his visit to Burma, the first for a UK Foreign Secretary in over 50 years.

He writes about this historic occasion:

"I have been a Member of Parliament for 23 years. For the vast majority of that time, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was prisoner in her own home; confined, guarded and separated from her family and the outside world. Throughout my whole political career she has been a potent symbol of hope and dignity in the face of injustice and oppression, a heroine to me and to countless other people around the world.

In 2010 she was finally freed, amid signs that the situation in Burma was at last changing for the better. Since then some political prisoners have been released, restrictions on the media and political parties have been eased and by-elections will be held in April this year. Aung San Suu Kyi herself has made the courageous decision to engage in political dialogue with a Government descended from the military regime that put her under arrest, and her party will run in the by-elections.

On Thursday I arrived in Burma. Until that point, no British Foreign Secretary had set foot in the country in over 50 years, for good reason.

My visit was made possible by the changes now underway which - although it is only right to view them with caution at this early stage - offer the chance, if they are continued and entrenched, for Burma and her people to escape the tragedy of recent decades.

I went to meet the Government and opposition figures to gauge for myself what is happening on the ground and to encourage further reform. I met the President, Speaker of the Lower House and Foreign Minister, as well as leaders of ethnic groups, former political prisoners, and Aung San Suu Kyi and her Party, the National League for Democracy.

We still have very serious concerns about the human rights situation in Burma. Hundreds of men and women still remain in jail there for their beliefs and must be released. Minorities like the Rohingya in many cases lack basic civil and political rights. The country’s border regions are scarred by conflict and suffering, particularly in Kachin state, where fighting has displaced tens of thousands of people in recent months. The UN urgently needs to be allowed to deliver humanitarian assistance there, the fighting must stop and the Government needs to begin meaningful political dialogue with ethnic armed groups. And the by-elections in April must be open, credible and fair. I raised these issues with the Burmese leaders I met.

But it is right that we react in good faith to the changes that are taking place.

My message to the Government was that we will respond to measures they take to open up the country.

If real and lasting reform continues, we are ready to offer a new relationship based on friendship and prosperity.

This is the approach that Aung San Suu Kyi herself favours, and which we discussed at length. She believes the President's commitment to reform is sincere and has embarked with him on a dialogue to bring about change. Her commitment to her people is beyond question, and I believe it is right to back her judgement.

Britain is the biggest bilateral aid donor to Burma. During the visit I announced funding for microfinance initiatives to help up to 55,000 more people, and additional support in food, nutrition, shelter, water and sanitation to 13,000 people displaced by conflict in Kachin State, as a sign of our commitment to the people of Burma.

The hours I spent with Aung San Suu Kyi at her home, where she spent some of her most difficult years, and at the British Embassy in Rangoon were memorable and inspiring. I gave her a letter from Prime Minister David Cameron, a copy of my biography of William Wilberforce and a photograph taken in London of her father, Burma’s independence leader, who was later tragically assassinated.

We spoke about her hopes for the future of country. I was struck by her self-discipline and profound sense of duty. As she put it to me, the key to Burma's future lay in two words: hard work. She had a clear message for the people of Britain: the people of Burma valued our friendship and knew they could count on our continued support. Burma’s struggle for freedom and democracy has been long and it still continues. Its people have suffered grievously. In Aung San Suu Kyi's own words: “The quest for democracy in Burma is the struggle of a people to live whole, meaningful lives as free and equal members of the world community”. Today, if these reforms continue, the people of Burma and its friends overseas can finally dare to hope that her vision may become a reality. Burma is a beautiful country with a remarkable people and enormous economic and social potential. Our Government will use Britain’s diplomatic support and development assistance in every way we can to help bring this about."

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There are at least 1,572 political prisoners believed to be behind bars in Burma. There is an ongoing secondary verification process to confirm the location of these individuals. So far, AAPP can confirm the prisons 918 political prisoners are being held in and is in the process of verifying more. Please refer to AAPP’s press release from 23 December, available at aappb.org, for more information on the verification process.

Trends
December has seen the U Thein Sein regime continue to court the West with a high profile meeting with US secretary of State, Hillary Clinton. Although promises were made by the regime that political prisoners would be released, there are still at least 1,572 people imprisoned for their political beliefs who are believed to still be in prison. The conditions that these prisoners endure remain appalling and people in opposition to the regime are still being tried and sentenced under the deeply flawed Burmese judicial system. Of high concern is the situation in ethnic regions such as Kachin State where the Burmese military continues to rape women, burn villages, force people into labor as porters, and many people are reported as disappeared. The case of Mahn Nyein Maung, a Karen leader now facing charges under the Unlawful Association Act after an enforced disappearance, typifies the lack of tolerance the regime has for politically active ethnic people.


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By LALIT K JHA 

New York Congressman Joseph Crowley. 

WASHINGTON—Top US lawmaker Joseph Crowley will travel to Burma later this week, making him the first US diplomat to visit this Southeast Asian nation since Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State, made a historic trip last month.

While in Burma on Jan. 12-13, New York Congressman Crowley is expected to meet with Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and ethnic minority leaders, as well as government officials.

“I am visiting the country to assess the situation on the ground, as well as to encourage the government to continue on the path of reform. While the government has taken some steps in the direction of reform, there is more that needs to be done,” Crowley said.

“I am also very much looking forward to my meetings with Aung San Suu Kyi, a leader I have admired for years,” said Crowley, who has been leader of pro-Burma activities in the US House of Representatives.

Crowley has spearheaded efforts to strengthen sanctions on Burma’s military leaders through the Block Burmese JADE Act, authoring legislation to renew the ban on all imports from Burma contained in the Burmese Freedom and Democracy Act, and leading the successful effort to award Aung San Suu Kyi the Congressional Gold Medal.

Crowley will travel to Burma from India where he is travelling as a member of a Congressional delegation.

Crowley said that, in the immediate wake of Clinton's visit, the Burmese government needs to show to the world it is serious about reform, and that this policy is irreversible, by take concrete actions including an immediate end to the ongoing human rights abuses.

“Secretary Clinton’s trip turned the global spotlight on Burma, but the onus for change ultimately lies in the hands of those who hold the levers of power—the ruling government of Burma and its military,” he told The Irrawaddy in an interview.

“If there is going to be genuine change, one thing is clear—it must start with concrete action that includes an immediate end to ongoing human rights abuses,” he said.

Crowley had alleged that the regime and the military are repressive. “It is engaged in rape, murder, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity in Burma. They have a long way to go before they will convince me that they are in fact on a path towards democracy,” he said.

Referring to the recent statement by US President Barack Obama that there is a “flicker of progress” in Burma, Crowley said, “I think the US is there to blow a little oxygen into it and add some kindling to it, to demonstrate the willingness of the United States to move Burma towards democracy.”

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I was contemplating, whether the Burmese regime would be able to deceive the West after tricking its own People? Lamentably I could not find the answer as it seems now. I simply could not comprehend of why the foreign dignitaries believed what their advisers and analysts say when they did not have any idea of what the psyche and rationale of the Burmese generals and its army, not to mention the generals’ thinking. It is rather bewildering to witness influential businessmen and foreign political leaders of the Western World lining up to give a courtesy call to the Burmese regime .After the visit of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Thailand’s Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, Indonesia Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa (Chairperson of ASEAN), Japan Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba came. Now the British Foreign Secretary William Hague, have visited the country to be followed by the Danish Delegation and the French Foreign Minister Alain JuppΓ©. Earlier, Norwegian Minister for Environment and International Development, Mr Erik Solheim, had come and all seems to fall into the Burmese Generals’ trap even though Daw Aung San Suu Kyi had warned that there is nothing to be excited about it. 

It seems that the visit of Hillary Clinton is interpreted by the Western leaders as a green light to begin to lift sanctions and provide development assistance as men by nature is an economic animal. But promoting the commercial interests too much, too soon, rough riding shot over human rights and democracy is not advisable. The West should not be carried away by some cosmetic reforms and that Burma’s long-ruling military still wields enormous power despite a veneer of democracy provided by the sham elections with a dubious constitution. It would be irrational and irresponsible for the international community to consider lifting the current sanctions and allowing foreign investments return to Burma; doing so will only enrich the top tiers of the military regime and their business associates while enslaving millions of people under their oppression. This will surely lead to regional instability. Great care must be taken that these visits did not lead to a big kind of commercial deal. 

I recollected of how the people used to laugh at me when I make a presentations in Europe and America some three decades ago that Burma was unique and the Generals are very cunning, cruel and tricky. The international community construed that Burma, is just like any other Third World Dictatorial Countries that is soon bound to change. That was sometime in the late 70s or early 80s when the winds of change came howling through Asia and dictators like Philippines’ Ferdinand Marcos, Indonesia’s Suharto, Pakistan’s Ayub Khan, Thailand’s Thanom Kittikachorn were making their exist and the world predicted that Burma’s Ne Win would soon follow. But prove to be wrong. Now the Arab spring came smiling and the self appointed international Burma experts, political pundits, international think tanks like ICG with an economic eye are predicting that the Burmese spring is imminent, after a long winter and predicted that soon these sordid generals would soon be history. I am afraid that they will be proven wrong again. 

Of course, not every Burman/Myanmar is bad but every Burmese administration is bad and this has been authentically proven by ancient and contemporary histories of Burma. The act of deceiving or concealment or distortion of the truth with the main purpose of misleading, duplicity or fraud and cheating seems to be the standard of all the Burmese military administrations. Synonyms like deceiving, trickery, deception, craftiness, crookedness, cunning, dishonesty dissembling, dissimulation, double dealing dupery duplicity, fakery, foxiness fraud, guile wiliness all seems to fit Thein Sein’s pseudo-civilian government. 

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi herself has revealed that Tatmadaw, wield immense power. As things slowly revealed, Than Shwe used his National Defence Security Council (NDSC) where his proxy the Vice President and the Army Chief plays key roles in blocking the release of leading dissidents serving long sentences. In shot he is using the Tatmadaw against Democracy, Development and the Union of the country. Its sole purpose is to be in power in perpetuity. Than Shwe and his military colleagues who are the real power behind was able to trick the international community by making some cosmetic changes when it release just a mere one tenth of the 2,500 political prisoners while celebrating its independence day by launching an all out war using air force and chemicals weapons against the ethnic Kachin in their course of ethnic cleansing policy is a clear indication of their real intention/. 

What more prove is wanted when influential businessmen like the fugitive former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, met with the Junta supremo Than Shwe under the pretext a preparatory trip Yingluck Shinawatra’s visit to Burma. Being one of the architects of ASEAN’s Constructive Engagement Policy knew exactly who the pivotal figure behind the scenes is. His not so secret meeting with Than Shwe proves not only the “hush hush” dealing but expose the lingering presence of Than Shwe even on the diplomatic scene. That is why Daw Aung San Suu Kyi herself said that that Tatmadaw could block the reforms “I am concerned about how much support there is in the military for change, how far the military are prepared to cooperate with reform principles.” Even though there was a momentum for change one should not be prematurely over optimistic and relax for the Tatmadaw can change everything as she has indicated. 

However, I was aghast when George Soros, billionaire American philanthropist, whose foundation supports grantees that provide uncensored news on Burma and activists, visited Burma. Speaking with him earlier at the Copenhagen Conference my impression that he was well advised by his Burmese advisers, the Burma Project has proven wrong again 

The world must realize that as long as the Tatmadaw is strong and control by Than Shwe and a group of Myanmar Chauvinists generals, whose greed and obsession of lording over the entire country under different pretext, there will be no peace or genuine democracy not to mention the Union of Burma with ethnic equality. In turn it became a regional and later the world problem if the nuclear program is not constraint. The natural resources like of natural gas, gems, and timber are too much attraction for these men in uniforms. Releasing a small fraction of the prisoners of conscience and tricking a few ethnic war lords to sign peace deal will not augur well in the long run 

One of the most important aspects of the military regime is that it believes that universities education are the birth place of dissent against autocratic rule and want to kill progressive ideas. Hence since 7th July 1962, the Burmese generals have sought to subvert education in Burma to remain in power at any cost. They kill most of the universities students whenever there were a crisis, often close them and send them to remote places and at the same time indirectly encourage them in consumption of recreational drugs on campus just to veer students away from opposition politics. It had bonded the rights to education as a hostage to be always held in captivity and then they can control the country. 

But the children of the Generals and those rich enough enjoy uninterrupted and quality education. At the same time Tatmadaw has established its identity as ΓΌber-nationalist, superior institution solely capable to safeguard them, the new officers are expected to become knowledgeable in economic and other matters to be able to fulfill their extended political and military tasks in building a strong military force and a wealthy and technologically developed army. While the national education system suffers chronically from lack of funds they want their children to go to the West and studies and here come in the Western sanctions that prevented them from doing so. 

One of the pretext if not the raison d’Γͺtre in ending the Western Sanctions is to counter an increasingly heavy Chinese influence on the country as in April the European leaders will decide whether to continue the current sanctions or not. But the hidden agenda is that the old generals are desirous to transfer their ill gotten money to their near and dear ones in trustworthy Swiss and other Western Banks as China could not be trusted and this is the real reason of why they crave so much for Western Sanctions to be lifted. The young and the new powerful group of military men and their families are still eager to follow the old generals and earn huge personal wealth from international trade and the rapid development of what is one of the poorest countries in the world. 

The release of all political prisoners is just one of the steps in the country's reforms, and since it fell short of expectations the United States, the European Union and other nations should seriously considered lifting the sanctions and we are hearten when State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told a news briefing. “Even one political prisoner too many, We continue to call for the release of all political prisoners, a halt to hostilities in ethnic areas, and an inclusive dialogue with ethnic minorities toward national reconciliation, space for all political parties to freely compete in April 1 by-elections, and full implementation of legislation to protect universal freedoms of expression, assembly and association,” 

If this is the case then William Hague should rather invite these Burmese Generals to The Hague in Netherlands to the International Criminal Court for their crimes against humanity instead of relaxing the punitive actions. 


(Prof. Kanbawza Win, the former Foreign Affairs Secretary to the Prime Minister of Burma has worked as a Senior Research Fellow at the European Institute of Asian Studies) Ed.



  Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd 


Australia said Monday it is easing some restrictions on members of Myanmar's ruling elite in response to political reforms by its military-backed government.

The decision came as the party of Myanmar democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi began gearing up to contest by-elections on April 1. Her National League for Democracy party has cautiously endorsed reforms instituted by President Thein Sein that include legalizing labor unions and freeing some political prisoners.

Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd announced the easing of sanctions during a visit to Indonesia, Australia's Foreign Affairs Department said.

"The changes to the sanctions list are an acknowledgment that Burma is taking a number of important steps toward a more open democracy and greater engagement with the region," the department said a statement, using the name for Myanmar preferred by the country's democracy movement.

Australia bars visits by senior Myanmar officials and bans financial transactions with them. Like other Western nations, it imposed the sanctions because of abuses by the previous military government.

The new policy removes former Cabinet ministers who have left politics and tourism officials from the sanctions list. The statement said an arms embargo remains in place.

"We hope positive developments, such as the increased participation of opposition parties in the political process, the release of around 220 political prisoners, and new labor laws that will legalize trade unions, will continue. In this context we will keep our approach to sanctions under review," Rudd said in the statement.

The United States and Britain, whose foreign secretary last week visited Myanmar, have not eased their sanctions, saying the release of more political prisoners is a key indicator of the progress of reforms. Between 1,000 and 2,000 political prisoners are believed to still be detained.

Thein Sein took office last year after a general election boycotted by Suu Kyi's group, which said the polls were undemocratic.

The government legally dissolved her party for falling to contest the election, but recently granted it official approval to contest the April 1 polls after it agreed to rejoin electoral politics. Suu Kyi is expected to run for a seat in parliament.

Her party won a sweeping victory in a 1990 general election, but could not take power when the military refused to allow parliament to convene.

On Monday, the party unveiled a new party logo for the upcoming polls and launched full-scale activities.

The logo uses the party flag, with a yellow fighting peacock and a white star on a red background. The fighting peacock was used by student activists during pro-democracy uprisings in 1988 and became a symbol of the democracy movement.

Most of the 48 seats being contested on April 1 were vacated by lawmakers who became Cabinet ministers after the first parliamentary session last January.

The military is guaranteed 110 seats in the 440-seat lower house and 56 seats in the 224-seat upper house, and the main pro-military party holds 80 percent of the remaining 498 elected seats, so even if the NLD wins all 48 seats up for grabs, it will have little power in parliament.



ျα€™α€”္α€™ာထေα€•αš ဒဏ္ခတ္ ပိတ္ဆိုα‚”α€™ႈထခ်ိဳα‚• αΎα€žα€…ေၾတးα€œ် ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပး

VOA — αΎα€žα€…ေၾတးα€œ်ႏုိင္ငံα€€ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာႏုိင္ငံထေα€•αšα€်ထားတဲ့ ဒဏ္ခတ္ပိတ္ဆိုα‚”α€™ႈတခ်ိဳα‚•α€€ို ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပးα€œိုα€€္ပါα€α€š္။ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာႏုိင္ငံα€™ွာ ထတိုα€€္ထခံေတြα€”ဲα‚” ပူးေပါင္းေဆာင္α€›ြα€€္တာေတြ စၿပီးေတာ့ ျα€–α€…္α€œာတဲ့ထတြα€€္ ေငြေα€›းေၾကးေα€›းα€”ဲα‚” ခရီးα€žြားα€œာခြင့္ ပိတ္ဆိုα‚” α€Ÿα€”္႔တားα€™ႈα€€ို ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပးα€œိုα€€္တာα€œိုα‚”αΎα€žα€…ေၾတးα€œ် ႏိုင္ငံျခားေα€›း ၀န္α‚€α€€ီးα€Œာα€”α€€ ထုတ္ျပန္တဲ့ ေαΎα€€α€Šာခ်α€€္ထဲα€™ွာ ေα€–ာ္ျပထားပါα€α€š္။ αΎα€žα€…ေၾတးα€œ်ေα€›ာα€€္ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာ့ထေα€›း တက္ၾကြα€œႈပ္α€›ွားα€žူေတြα€€ေတာ့ ထခုα€œို ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပးα€–ိုα‚” ထခ်ိα€”္မတန္ေα€žးα€˜ူးα€œုိα‚” ေ၀ဖန္α€œုိα€€္ပါα€α€š္။ ထျα€•α€Š့္α€…ံုα€€ို ဦး၀င္းမင္းα€€ တင္ျပထားပါα€α€š္။

Kevin Rudd ၏ website တြင္ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာထေα€•αš α€…ီးပြားေα€›းပိတ္ဆိုα‚”α€™ႈ ေα€œွ်ာ့ခ်ေၾကာင္းေα€–ာ္ျပထား

ထေα€™α€›ိα€€α€”္α€”ဲα‚” ၿဗိတိα€”္ ႏိုင္ငံျခားေα€›း၀န္α‚€α€€ီးေတြα€€ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာႏိုင္ငံထေα€•αš α€…ီးပြားေα€›းဒဏ္ခတ္ ပိတ္ဆိုα‚”α€™ႈေတြα€€ို ဆက္ထိα€”္းထားα€–ိုα‚” ေျပာေနခ်ိα€”္α€™ွာ αΎα€žα€…ေၾတးα€œ် ႏိုင္ငံျခားေα€›း၀န္α‚€α€€ီးα€˜α€€္α€€ေတာ့ ပထမဆံုး ထခုα€œုိ α€… ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပါ့ေပးα€–ိုα‚” ဆံုးျဖတ္α€œာတာပါ။ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာႏိုင္ငံα€€ို α€™ႏွα€…္α€€ α€žြားα€œα€Š္ခဲ့ၿပီး ေα€’αšေထာင္ဆန္းα€…ုαΎα€€α€Š္ α€”ဲα‚”α€œα€Š္း αΎα€žα€…ေၾတးα€œ် ႏိုင္ငံျခားေα€›း၀န္α‚€α€€ီး α€€α€š္ဗင္α€›α€€္α€’္ (Kevin Rudd) α€€ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာႏိုင္ငံထဲα€™ွာ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေα€›း ပိုၿပီး ပြင့္ပြင့္α€œα€„္းα€œα€„္း ေဆာင္α€›ြα€€္ႏိုင္α€–ိုα‚” ထတိုα€€္ထခံေတြ ထေα€”α€”ဲα‚” ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းα€œုပ္ငန္းေတြα€™ွာ ပိုα€™ို ပါ၀င္α€œႈပ္α€›ွားခြင့္ α€›α€œာတာ၊ ႏုိင္ငံေα€›းထက်α€₯္းα€žားေပါင္း ၂၂၀ ျပန္α€œြတ္α€œာတာα€”ဲα‚” α€‘α€œုပ္α€žα€™ား α€žα€™α€‚ၢေတြ တရား၀င္α€–ြဲα‚”α€–ိုα‚” ခြင့္ျပဳႏိုင္α€™α€š့္ α€‘α€œုပ္α€žα€™ားα€₯ပေα€’α€žα€…္ေတြ ျα€•α€Œာα€”္းα€œာတာေတြα€Ÿာ တိုးတက္α€™ႈေတြ ျα€–α€…္တာα€™ိုα‚” α€’ီတုိးတက္α€™ႈေတြ ဆက္α€œုပ္ေပးα€–ိုα‚” ထားေပးတဲ့ထေα€”α€”ဲα‚” ထခုα€œို ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပါ့ေပးα€œိုα€€္တာ ျα€–α€…္α€α€š္α€œိုα‚” αΎα€žα€…ေၾတးα€œ် ႏုိင္ငံျခားေα€›း၀န္α‚€α€€ီးα€Œာα€”α€€ ထုတ္ျပန္ခ်α€€္ထဲα€™ွာ ေျပာα€œုိα€€္ပါα€α€š္။

α€’ီေα€”α‚” ထုတ္ျပန္ခဲ့တဲ့ αΎα€žα€…ေၾတးα€œ် ၀န္α‚€α€€ီးα€Œာα€”α€›ဲα‚• α€’ီေαΎα€€α€Šာခ်α€€္ထဲα€™ွာ ထခုα€œို ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပးတဲ့ထေα€”α€”ဲα‚” ျα€™α€”္α€™ာထစိုးα€›α€žα€…္ထဲα€€ α€œူေတြα€€ို ၂၀၀၇ ခုႏွα€…္ ေα€›ႊ၀ါေα€›ာင္ α€œႈပ္α€›ွားα€™ႈ α€–ိႏွိပ္α€™ႈၿပီးα€€α€α€Š္းα€€ α€… ခ်α€™ွတ္α€œာခဲ့တဲ့ ေငြေα€›းေၾကးေα€›းα€”ဲα‚” ခရီးα€žြားα€œာခြင့္ ဆိုင္α€›ာ ပိတ္ပင္α€…ာရင္းထဲα€™ွာ α€™α€‘α€Š့္α€žြင္းေတာ့α€˜ူး၊ ထစိုးα€›ေα€Ÿာင္းα€™ွာ ပါခဲ့α€žူေတြα€€ိုα€œα€Š္း α€’ီα€…ာရင္းထဲα€€ေα€” α€•α€š္α€–်α€€္α€œိုα€€္ၿပီα€œိုα‚” ဆိုပါα€α€š္။ α€•α€š္α€–်α€€္α€œိုα€€္တဲ့ α€žူေတြထဲα€™ွာ ႏိုင္ငံျခားခရီးα€žြားα€œုပ္ငန္းα€€ ထရာα€›ွိေတြα€œα€Š္း ပါ၀င္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ါေပမဲ့ ထရင္ ခ်α€™ွတ္ထားတဲ့ ပိတ္ဆိုα‚”α€™ႈတစ္ခုျα€–α€…္တဲ့ α€œα€€္α€”α€€္ α€™ေα€›ာင္းခ်ေα€›း ပိတ္ပင္ထားα€™ႈα€€ိုေတာ့ ဆက္ထိα€”္းထားဦးα€™ွာ ျα€–α€…္α€α€š္α€œိုα‚” α€’ီေαΎα€€α€Šာခ်α€€္α€™ွာ ေα€–ာ္ျပထားပါα€α€š္။ ၀န္α‚€α€€ီး α€›α€€္α€’္ α€€ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာႏိုင္ငံα€™ွာ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းα€œဲေα€›း ပိုα€œုပ္α€œာတာα€”ဲ႔ထမွ် α€’ီ ပိတ္ဆိုα‚”α€™ႈေတြα€€ို ဆက္α€œα€€္ၿပီး ျပန္α€œα€Š္ α€žံုးα€žα€•္ ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပးα€žြားα€™ွာျα€–α€…္α€α€š္α€œိုα‚” ဆိုပါα€α€š္။

α€’ါေပမဲ့ αΎα€žα€…ေၾတးα€œ်ႏိုင္ငံα€™ွာ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာ့ထေα€›း ေဆာင္α€›ြα€€္ေα€”α€žူတစ္ဦးျα€–α€…္တဲ့ ေα€’ါα€€္တာ ျမင့္ခ်ိဳα€€ေတာ့ ထခုα€œို ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပါ့ေပးα€–ိုα‚” ထခ်ိα€”္မတန္ေα€žးα€˜ူးα€œိုα‚” ေ၀ဖန္α€œိုα€€္ပါα€α€š္။

“α€œα€€္α€›ွိ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာႏိုင္ငံα€™ွာ ႏုိင္ငံေα€›းထက်α€₯္းα€žားေတြα€œα€Š္း α€™α€œႊတ္ေပးေα€žးα€˜ူး။ တိုင္းရင္းα€žား α€œူα€™်ိဳးα€…ုေတြα€€ိုα€œα€Š္း α€…α€…္ေတြတိုα€€္ခိုα€€္ေနတာေတြα€œα€Š္း ေα€žα€်ာ မရပ္ေα€žးα€˜ူး။ α€œူ႔ထခြင့္ထေα€›း ခ်ိဳးေα€–ာα€€္α€™ႈေတြα€œα€Š္း ထမ်ားα‚€α€€ီး မတိုးတက္ေα€žးα€˜ဲα€”ဲα‚” ထခုα€œို ပစ္α€™ွတ္ထား ပိတ္ဆိုα‚”α€Ÿα€”္႔တားα€™ႈα€€ို ႐ုပ္α€žိα€™္းတဲ့α€€ိα€…α₯α€€ေတာ့ α€’ါ ထခ်ိα€”္မတန္ေα€žးα€˜ူးα€œိုα‚” ေα€…ာα€œြα€”္းα€α€š္α€œိုα‚” α€€်ေα€”ာ္တိုα‚” α€šူα€†α€α€š္။ α€˜ာေၾကာင့္α€œဲဆုိေတာ့ αΎα€žα€…ေၾတးα€œ်ထစိုးα€›α€€ α€œူ႔ထခြင့္ထေα€›း ခ်ိဳးေα€–ာα€€္α€™ႈေတြေၾကာင့္၊ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›း ထက်α€₯္းα€žားေတြα€€ို ဆက္ၿပီး ထိα€”္းα€žိα€™္းထားတာေၾကာင့္၊ တိုင္းရင္းα€žားေတြα€€ို α€…α€…္ဆင္ေနတာေၾကာင့္ sanction α€œိုα‚”ေα€αšα€ဲ့ ပစ္α€™ွတ္ထား ပိတ္ဆို႔ဒဏ္ခတ္α€™ႈα€€ို ခ်ထားတာျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ါေၾကာင့္α€™ိုα€œိုα‚” α€’ါေတြα€€ို ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ႈေတြ α€™α€œုပ္ေα€žးα€˜ဲα€”ဲα‚” ထခုα€œိုα€™်ိဳး ႐ုပ္α€žိα€™္းα€–ိုα‚”α€…α€₯္းα€…ားတဲ့ α€€ိα€…α₯α€€ိုေတာ့ျဖင့္ α€€်ေα€”ာ့္ထေα€”α€”ဲα‚” α€œံုး၀ α€™ေထာα€€္ခံပါα€˜ူး။”

αΎα€žα€…ေၾတးα€œ်ႏိုင္ငံ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာ့ေα€›းα€›ာ႐ံုး α€Šႊα€”္ၾကားေα€›းα€™ွဴးα€œα€Š္းျα€–α€…္တဲ့ ေα€’ါα€€္တာျမင့္ခ်ိဳα€€ ထခုα€œို ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပးတာα€€ို ထံ့αΎα€žα€™ိα€α€š္α€œိုα‚” ဆိုပါα€α€š္။

“α€€်ေα€”ာ့္ထေα€”α€”ဲα‚” တစ္ခုထံ့αΎα€žα€ာα€€ မၾကာေα€žးခင္α€€ α€˜ာα€œီα€™ွာျပဳα€œုပ္α€žြားတဲ့ ထာဆီα€šံ ထိပ္α€žီးα€…α€Š္းေ၀းပြဲα€™ွာ αΎα€žα€…ေၾတးα€œ် ၀န္α‚€α€€ီးခ်ဳပ္ ဂ်ဴα€œီα€šာေဂးα€œα€•္ α€€ ထခု ထေျပာင္းα€‘α€œဲေတြ ျα€–α€…္ေနတဲ့ထေα€•αšα€™ွာေတာ့ α‚€α€€ိဳဆိုα€α€š္။ α€’ါေပမဲ့ α€α€€α€š့္α€€ို α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေα€›းα€€ို ေα€›ွ႕႐ႈတဲ့ ထေျပာင္းα€‘α€œဲေတြ ခိုင္ခိုင္α€™ာα€™ာ α€™ေတြ႔မခ်င္းေတာ့ ပစ္α€™ွတ္ထား ပိတ္ဆို႔ဒဏ္ခတ္တဲ့ α€€ိα€…α₯ေတြα€€ို ႐ုပ္α€žိα€™္းα€™ွာα€™α€Ÿုတ္α€˜ူး။ ေα€”ာα€€္… ထေျပာင္းα€‘α€œဲေတြ α€™ျα€–α€…္α€˜ူးဆုိရင္ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာႏိုင္ငံα€™ွာ ထာဆီα€šံ ထိပ္α€žီးα€…α€Š္းေ၀းပြဲေတာင္α€™ွ တက္ခ်င္α€™ွတက္α€™α€š္ ဆိုၿပီးေတာ့ ျပတ္ျပတ္α€žားα€žား ေျပာထားတာα€›ွိပါα€α€š္။

“ထဲα€’ီေတာ့ ၿပီးခဲ့တဲ့ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းထက်α€₯္းα€žား α€œႊတ္ေပးα€α€š္ဆိုတာα€€α€œα€Š္း ၃၄ ေα€šာα€€္ေα€œာα€€္ပဲ α€›ွိတဲ့ထခါα€€်ေတာ့ ၀န္α‚€α€€ီးခ်ဳပ္ ေျပာα€…α€€ားထရဆိုရင္ α€’ါα€Ÿာ α€˜α€š္α€œိုα€™ွ ထေα€œွ်ာ့ေပးα€žα€„့္တဲ့ ထေျခထေα€” α€™α€Ÿုတ္α€˜ူးα€œိုα‚” α€€်ေα€”ာ္တုိα‚” α€šူα€†α€α€š္။”

ေα€’ါα€€္တာျမင့္ခ်ိဳ ကပဲ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာႏိုင္ငံα€™ွာ ထခ်ိဳα‚•α€…ျα€–α€…္α€œာတဲ့ ထေျပာင္းα€‘α€œဲေတြα€€ို α‚€α€€ိဳဆိုေပမဲ့ ဆက္ၿပီး ေα€”ာα€€္ထပ္ α€œုပ္ေပးα€–ိုα‚” ထမ်ားα‚€α€€ီး α€›ွိေα€”ေα€žးα€α€š္၊ α€’ါေၾကာင့္α€™ိုα‚” ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပးα€žα€„့္တဲ့ ထခ်ိα€”္α€”ဲ႔ပတ္α€žα€€္ၿပီး ထခုα€œို ဆက္α€›ွင္းျပပါα€α€š္။

“ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းထက်α€₯္းα€žားေတြα€€ို ထားα€œံုး α€œႊတ္ေပးα€–ိုα‚”α€œိုα€α€š္။ တိုင္းရင္းα€žားေတြα€€ို ထိုးα€…α€…္ဆင္ေနတာေတြ ရပ္ေပးα€–ုိα‚”α€œိုα€α€š္။ တိုင္းရင္းα€žားေတြပါတဲ့ ထားα€œံုး ေတြ႔ဆံု ေဆြးေႏြးα€™ႈေတြ α€œုပ္ေပးα€–ိုα‚”α€œိုα€α€š္။”

ထခုα€œို ထခ်ိα€”္မတန္ခင္ ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပးα€œိုα€€္α€™ႈေၾကာင့္ ျα€–α€…္ေα€•αšα€œာα€™α€š့္ ထက်ိဳးဆက္ေတြα€€ိုα€œα€Š္း α€…ိုးα€›ိα€™္α€™ိα€α€š္α€œိုα‚”α€œα€Š္း ေα€’ါα€€္တာ ျမင့္ခ်ိဳα€€ ေထာα€€္ျပပါα€α€š္။

“α€’ီα€œိုထခ်ိα€”္မတန္α€˜ဲ ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပးျခင္းထားျဖင့္ α€œα€€္α€›ွိ ျα€™α€”္α€™ာႏိုင္ငံα€€ို ထုပ္ခ်ဳပ္ေနတဲ့ ဦးα€žိα€”္းα€…ိα€”္ ေခါင္းေဆာင္တဲ့ ထစိုးα€›α€€ေα€”၊ တိုα‚”ေတြ α€’ီေα€œာα€€္α€œုပ္ေပးရင္ ႏိုင္ငံတကာα€€ ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပးα€œာα€™ွာပဲ ဆိုၿပီးေတာ့ ဆက္ၿပီးေတာ့ ေα€œွ်ာ့ေပးα€…α€›ာ ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€…α€›ာေတြα€€ို α€™α€œုပ္ေတာ့α€˜ဲα€”ဲα‚” ရပ္တန္α‚”α€žြားႏိုင္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီထက်ိဳးဆက္α€€ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›း ထက်α€₯္းα€žားေတြ α€œႊတ္ေပးα€–ိုα‚”α€€ိα€…α₯α€™ွာα€œα€Š္း ေႏွာင့္ေႏွးα€žြားႏိုင္ပါα€α€š္ခင္α€—်။”

ျα€™α€”္α€™ာႏိုင္ငံထေα€•αš ဆက္α€œα€€္ ထားα€›ွိေα€žးတဲ့ αΎα€žα€…ေၾတးα€œ်ႏိုင္ငံα€›ဲα‚• ဒဏ္ခတ္α€™ႈတခ်ိဳα‚•α€€ိုα€œα€Š္း ေα€”ာα€€္ထပ္ α€œြα€š္α€œြα€š္α€€ူα€€ူ ထခ်ိα€”္မတန္ခင္ ထခုα€œို ေα€œွ်ာ့α€™ေပးα€œိုα€€္α€–ိုα‚” ဆက္α€œα€€္ ေတာင္းဆိုα€œႈပ္α€›ွားα€žြားα€™α€š္α€œိုα‚” ေα€’ါα€€္တာျမင့္ခ်ိဳα€€ ဆိုပါα€α€š္။
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တိုα€€္ပဲြေတြ ျα€–α€…္ပြားေနတဲ့ ကခ်င္ေα€’α€žα€™ွာ ေနရပ္α€Œာေα€” α€…ြα€”့္ခြာ ထြα€€္ေျပးα€œာရတဲ့ α€’ုα€€α‘α€žα€Š္ေပါင္း ထခုထခါ ၆ေα€žာင္း ေα€œာα€€္ထထိ α€›ိွα€œာေα€”ျပီး α€€α€š္α€†α€š္ေα€›း ထကူα€‘α€Šီေတြ ထေα€›းတျα€€ီး α€œိုထပ္ေα€” α€α€š္α€œို့ ဂ်ာα€™α€”ီα€”ိုင္ငံ ထေျခစိုα€€္ People In Need α€•α€›α€Ÿိတ ထဖဲြα‚•α€€ ေျပာပါα€α€š္။

ျα€™α€…္ျα€€ီးα€”ားα€”ဲ့ ဝိုင္းေα€™ာ္ေα€’α€žေတြα€™ွာ α€’ုα€€α‘α€žα€Š္ ေတြα€€ို ခရစ္α€šာα€”္ α€˜ုα€›ားေα€€်ာင္းဝင္းေတြထဲα€™ွာ ေα€…ာင့္ေα€›ွာα€€္ထားα€›ျပီး α€˜ုα€›ားေα€€်ာင္းဝင္းေတြ ထဲα€™ွာ ေα€”α€›ာα€”ဲ့α€™α€™ွ် α€’ုα€€α‘α€žα€Š္ေတြ ျα€•α€Š့္α€œံွ်ေα€”ေျα€€ာင္းα€”ဲ့ ထဲα€’ီα€™ွာ α€œα€”ဲ့ခီ် ေα€”ေα€”ျα€€α€›α€žူေတြ α€›ိွေα€”α€žα€œို α€žα€™αΌα€ ဦးα€žိα€”္းα€…ိα€”္ α€€ိုα€š္တိုင္α€€ ထပစ္ရပ္α€–ို့ α€Šွြα€”္ျα€€ားထားတဲ့ျα€€ားα€€ တိုα€€္ပဲြေတြ ဆက္ျα€–α€…္ေနတာေျα€€ာင့္ α€’ုα€€α‘α€žα€Š္ေတြ ေα€”့စဉ္α€”ဲ့ ထမွ် ထပ္ေα€›ာα€€္α€œာေα€” ေျα€€ာင္း၊ ျα€™α€…္ျα€€ီးα€”ားα€”ဲ့ ဝိုင္းေα€™ာ္ ေα€’α€žα€€ α€’ုα€€α‘α€žα€Š္ေတြα€›ဲ့ ထေျခထေα€”ေတြα€€ို α€€ိုα€š္တိုင္ α€žြားေα€›ာα€€္ျα€€α€Š့္α€›ႈခဲ့တဲ့ People In Need ထဖဲြ့α€€ ေα€’ါα€€္တာ Gerhard Baumgard α€€ α€˜ီα€˜ီα€…ီα€€ို ေျပာျပပါα€α€š္။

α€œူေတြ ျα€•α€Š့္α€Šα€•္ေα€”α€žα€œို တိုα€€္ပဲြဒဏ္ေျα€€ာင့္α€œα€Š္းထျα€€ီးထက်α€š္ α€…ိတ္ေα€žာα€€ α€–ိα€…ီးေα€”ျα€€ေျα€€ာင္း၊ α€’ုα€€α‘α€žα€Š္ေတြထေα€”α€”ဲ့ α€žူတို့ ေနရပ္ α€€ို ျပန္α€žြားခ်င္ျα€€ေα€•α€™α€š့္ α€žူတို့α€›ြာေတြ၊ α€œα€š္ခင္းေတြ α€™ီးα€›ိႈ႕ခံခဲ့α€›α€žα€œို α€žူတို့ ထိα€™္ေတြα€™ွာα€œα€Š္း α€…α€…္တပ္α€€ ဝင္ေα€”ေα€”ျကတဲ့ထတြα€€္ α€™ျပန္α€›ဲပဲ ျα€–α€…္ေနတာ ေတြ႔ခဲ့α€›α€α€š္α€œိုα‚” ဆိုပါα€α€š္။

ကခ်င္ေα€’α€žα€€ α€’ုα€€α‘α€žα€Š္ေတြ ထဓိα€€ α€œိုထပ္ေနတာ α€…ားနပ္ α€›ိကၑာ ထကူα€‘α€Šီ ျα€–α€…္ျပီး ထဲα€’ီα€™ွာ ထကူα€‘α€Šီေပးေနတဲ့ WFP α€€α€™ာၻ႔စားနပ္α€›ိကၑာα€…ီα€™ံα€€ိα€”္း α€€ုα€œα€žα€™α€‚ၢထဖဲြα‚”α€›ဲ့ α€€α€š္α€†α€š္ေα€›း ထကူα€‘α€Šီေတြ α€‘α€œံုထေα€œာα€€္ ေထာα€€္ပံ့ခြင့္ မရတဲ့ထတြα€€္ α€…ားနပ္ α€›ိကၑာ ေတြ α€™ျα€€ာခင္ ျပတ္α€œα€•္α€žြားα€™α€š့္ ထေျခထေα€”α€™်ဳိး α€›ိွေα€”ေျα€€ာင္း၊ α€’ုα€€α‘α€žα€Š္ ထမ်ားα€…ုα€Ÿာ α€›ြα€€္α€–်င္တဲေတြ၊ ဝါးတဲေတြα€™ွာ ေα€”ေα€”α€›ျပီး α€Šα€–α€€္α€™ွာ ထေထးဒဏ္ α€€ာα€€ြα€š္α€–ို့ ျခံုေα€…ာင္ေတြα€œα€Š္း ထေα€›းတျα€€ီး α€œိုေα€”ေျα€€ာင္းα€”ဲ့ တခ်ဳိα‚•ေα€”α€›ာေတြα€™ွာ ေα€žာα€€္α€žံုးေα€› α€‘α€œံုထေα€œာα€€္ မရတာေတြ α€›ိွေα€”ျပီး α€™ျα€€ာခင္ ေျခာα€€္ေα€žြα‚” α€›ာα€žီ ေα€›ာα€€္α€œာေတာ့α€™ွာα€™ိုα‚” ထခက္ထခဲေတြα€”ဲ့ ရင္ဆိုင္α€›α€–ို့ α€›ိွေα€”ေျα€€ာင္း ေα€’ါα€€္တာ Gerhard Baumgard α€€ ေျပာပါα€α€š္။

ထဲα€’ီα€™ွာ α€’ုα€€α‘α€žα€Š္ေတြα€€ို ထမ်ားထားျဖင့္ α€€α€š္α€†α€š္ေα€›း ထကူα€‘α€Šီေပးေနတာα€€ ေα€’α€žα€ံ α€˜ာα€žာေα€›း ထဖဲြα‚”α€‘α€…α€Š္းေတြ၊ α€€ုα€œα€žα€™α€‚ၢထဖဲြα‚”ေတြ၊ ထစိုးα€› α€™α€Ÿုတ္တဲ့ NGO ထဖဲြ႔တြ ျα€–α€…္ျပီး ထစိုးα€› ထဖဲြα‚”α€‘α€…α€Š္းေတြα€€ α€œာေα€›ာα€€္ ထကူα€‘α€Šီ ေပးတာα€™်ဳိး α€™ေတြ႔ခဲ့α€›α€˜ူး α€œို့α€œα€Š္း ေျပာျပပါα€α€š္။

α€’ုα€€α‘α€žα€Š္ေတြα€€ို α€›ွα€™္းျα€•α€Š္α€”α€š္ ဝန္ျα€€ီးခ်ဳပ္α€€ တတ္α€”ိုင္α€žေα€œာα€€္ ေထာα€€္ပံ့ ထကူα€‘α€Šီ ေပးေα€”α€α€š္α€œို့ ထဲα€’ီα€€ α€”ွα€…္ျခင္း ခရစ္α€šာα€”္ α€žα€„္းထုပ္ဆရာတဦးα€€ α€žူ့α€€ို ေျပာျပေျα€€ာင္း၊ α€’ုα€€α‘α€žα€Š္ေတြα€€ို ထကူα€‘α€Šီတခ်ဳိα‚” ေပးခ်င္α€α€š္ ဆိုျပီး ပါα€œီα€™α€”္ α€œႊတ္ေတာ္α€€ α€€α€™္းα€œွα€™္းခဲ့တုα€”္းα€€ေတာ့ α€˜α€š္α€œို ထကူα€‘α€Šီα€™်ဳိးဆိုတာ α€™ေα€žα€်ာတဲ့ထတြα€€္ဆိုျပီး KIO ကခ်င္ α€œြတ္ေျα€™ာα€€္ေα€›း ထဖဲြα‚”α€€ α€œα€€္မခံခဲ့ေျα€€ာင္း ေα€’ါα€€္တာ Gerhard Baumgard α€€ ေျပာပါα€α€š္။

α€’ုα€€α‘α€žα€Š္ေတြα€›ဲ့ ထေျခထေα€”ေတြα€€ို α€”ိုင္ငံတကာ α€€α€š္α€†α€š္ေα€›း ထဖဲြ့α€‘α€…α€Š္းေတြα€€ို α€žြားေα€›ာα€€္ ျα€€α€Š့္α€›ႈခြင့္α€™ျပဳတာα€Ÿာ တိုα€€္ပဲြေတြ ျα€–α€…္ေα€” တဲ့ေα€”α€›ာေတြα€™ို့ α€œံုျခံုေα€›းေျα€€ာင့္ ဆိုျပီး ထစိုးα€›α€€ ထေျα€€ာင္းျပထားေျα€€ာင္း၊ α€’ါေα€•α€™α€š့္α€œα€Š္း α€›ွα€™္းျα€•α€Š္α€€ α€”α€š္စပ္ေα€’α€ž တခ်ဳိα‚•α€™ွာဆို ထိုးထိα€™္ α€…ြα€”့္ခြာ ထြα€€္ေျပးတဲ့ IDP α€’ုα€€α‘α€žα€Š္ေတြ α€›ိွေနတာ α€†α€š္α€…ုα€”ွα€…္α€”ဲ့ခီ် α€›ိွေα€”ေα€•α€™α€š့္ α€”ိုင္ငံတကာ α€€α€š္α€†α€š္ေα€›း ထဖဲြ့ေတြ α€žြားခြင့္α€™α€›ေα€žးေျα€€ာင္း α€žူα€€ ေျပာပါα€α€š္။

ျပီးခဲ့တဲ့ α€›α€€္ပိုင္းကပဲ α€”ွα€…္ေပါင္း ၅၀ေα€€်ာ္ထတြင္း ျα€™α€”္α€™ာα€”ိုင္ငံα€€ို ျα€—ိတိα€”္ α€”ိုင္ငံျခားေα€›း ဝန္ျα€€ီးတဦးထျα€–α€…္ ပထမဆံုးထျα€€ိα€™္ α€œာေα€›ာα€€္ခဲ့တဲ့ α€™α€…α₯တာ William Hague α€€ ကခ်င္ေα€’α€žα€†ီ α€”ိုင္ငံတကာ α€€α€š္α€†α€š္ေα€›း ထဖဲြ့ေတြ α€žြားခြင့္ျပုα€–ို့ ထစိုးα€›α€€ို တိုα€€္တြα€”္း ခဲ့α€žα€œို α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ ေခါင္းေဆာင္ ေα€’αšေထာင္ဆန္း α€…ုျα€€α€Š္α€€α€œα€Š္း ကခ်င္ေα€’α€žα€€ α€’ုα€€0×081α€α€žα€Š္ေတြα€”ဲ့ ေα€’α€žα€ံေတြα€›ဲ့ ထေျခထေα€” ဆိုးဝါးα€œာေα€”ေျα€€ာင္းα€”ဲ့ ကခ်င္ထေα€›းα€€ို ထေα€›းတျα€€ီး ေဆာင္α€›ြα€€္α€–ို့ α€œိုေျα€€ာင္း ေျပာα€žြားပါα€α€š္။

credit here


Compiled by National League for Democracy (NLD) on 7-11-2011
Read the full report Here

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ALLEGED AMNESTY IS HIGHLY LIMITED IN NATURE AND AMOUNTS TO A PALTRY REDUCTION OF HARSH PRISON TERMS

On 2 January, President U Thein Sein of the Union Solidarity Development Party signed amnesty order 1/2012, authorizing a commutation of death sentences to life and a reduction in prison terms. Those prisoners serving more than 30 year sentences have had their sentences deducted to up to 30 years; prisoners with 20 to 30 year terms are now serving up to 20 years; and prisoners with less than 20 years will experience a one fourth deduction in their sentences.

“This order does not qualify as an amnesty as it is just a deplorable reduction in draconian prison terms. Political prisoners, especially those in prominent positions and in leadership roles, have been given extremely long sentences in an effort to exclude them from any future amnesties. Having a sentence reduced from 120 years to 90 years means nothing to those who sacrificed their lives for democratic transition and continue to languish behind bars. It is imperative that they are unconditionally and immediately released – the democracy movement in Burma cannot wait any longer, Bo Kyi, Joint-Secretary of AAPP said.”

Three times a so-called amnesty has been declared under President U Thein Sein and three times the domestic and international community has been deceived. These amnesties resulted in nothing more than an insignificant shaving off of unduly harsh prison terms. Although AAPP welcomes the release of any political prisoner, it bears repeating that one political prisoner behind bars is one political prisoner too many.

This most recent amnesty is no different than past amnesties where only a small number of political prisoners were released. AAPP can confirm that in the past amnesties ordered by U Thein Sein, only 0.75% of those released were political prisoners. Approximately 14,600 prisoners were freed on 17May 2011, but only 72 of those were political prisoners. Under the second amnesty on 12 October 2011, 6,359 prisoners were released, with only 241 of those being political prisoners. As of the end of the day 4 January, AAPP can confirm that 34 political prisoners have been freed. However, the majority of them were nearing the end of their sentences. Those who have a critical role to play in the democratic and national reconciliation process, along with fostering the nascent civil society, will continue to remain behind bars for decades. Ethnic leader U Khun Htun Oo, 88 Generation leader Min Ko Naing, revered monk leader U Gambira, individual activists, students, and women who were given long imprisonments are ostensibly excluded from this shameless amnesty.

“This amnesty is wholly insufficient and directly contravenes statements made by the administration’s leading authorities that the majority of political prisoners would be released in January. These statements amount to mental torture both for the political prisoner and their loved ones who anticipate their freedom. It is a cruel tactic intended to wear down the spirit and morale of those imprisoned, Bo Kyi said”

The failure to release all political prisoners gives the people of Burma little hope for the fate of democracy and human rights. There can be no national reconciliation process or resolution of internal ethnic conflicts without the immediate release of all political prisoners. It is clear that these self-styled amnesties have been methodically designed to exclude political prisoners serving long prison terms, including 88 generation members. The repeated false steps taken by the U Thein Sein administration, where impending releases are highly trumpeted only to result in a paltry reduction in terms, foster suspicion and breed mistrust.

Political prisoners, arrested and sentenced under former military regimes, were arbitrarily deprived of their liberty and were not granted their universal right to a fair trial. If Burma wants to show itself as a nation in democratic transition, it needs to account for why over 1,000 political prisoners continue to be deprived of their most basic liberties. The release of all political prisoners depends solely on the authorization of President U Thein Sein; his failure to do so reveals his unwillingness to resolve this most pressing issue. Doing so would lay the foundation of a nation that conforms with the rule of law and human rights.

In the face of such an inadequate amnesty, AAPP repeats its calls for the U Thein Sein administration to recognize the existence of political prisoners, to secure their immediate and unconditional release, and to erase their criminal records. This is a necessary first step before Burma can move forward towards peace and national reconciliation.

Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma)

For more information:

Tate Naing (Secretary): +66 (0) 81 287 8751
Bo Kyi (Joint-Secretary): +66 (0) 81 962 8713

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Thanks N Regards,
Assistant Association for Political Prisoners (Burma)
Office Ph: 66(၀)55-545495



α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီဆိုတာ α€…α€”α€…္တခုျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ α€…α€”α€…္တခုျα€–α€…္တာေၾကာင့္ α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€šူရပါα€α€š္။ တခ်ိဳα‚•α€€ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီဆိုတာα€€ို ထာဏာα€›ွင္ေတြဆီα€€ ေတာင္းα€šူα€œိုα‚• α€›α€™α€š္α€œိုα‚• ထင္တတ္ၾကပါα€α€š္။ α€’ါေα€•α€™α€š့္ ထာဏာα€›ွင္ဆိုတာα€€ ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€…α€”α€…္α€€ို α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္ေα€”α€žူα€™်ားျα€–α€…္တာေၾကာင့္ ထာဏာα€›ွင္ဆီα€™ွာ α€™α€›ွိတဲ့ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€€ို ေတာင္းα€šူα€œိုα‚• မရပါ။ α€’ီေတာ့ ေတာင္းα€šူα€œိုα‚• မရရင္ တိုα€€္α€šူα€œိုα‚• α€›α€™α€œားα€œိုα‚• ေα€™းα€…α€›ာα€›ွိα€œာပါα€α€š္။ တိုα€€္α€šူα€α€š္α€œိုα‚• ဆိုရင္ေတာ့ မရပါα€˜ူး။ တိုα€€္တာα€€ေတာ့ တိုα€€္ရပါα€™α€š္။ α€œူထုတိုα€€္ပြဲα€‘α€žြင္α€”ဲ႕ပဲျα€–α€…္ျα€–α€…္၊ α€œα€€္α€”α€€္α€€ိုင္တိုα€€္ပြဲထေα€”α€”ဲα‚•ျα€–α€…္ျα€–α€…္၊ ႏိုင္ငံတကာထကူα€‘α€Šီ ေပါင္းစပ္ ပါ၀င္α€™ွဳα€”ဲ႕ပဲျα€–α€…္ျα€–α€…္ တိုα€€္ရပါα€™α€š္။ ႏိုင္ငံတကာထကူα€‘α€Šီ ေပါင္းစပ္ပါ၀င္α€™ွဳα€œို႕ပဲ ဆိုထားပါα€α€š္။ ႏိုင္ငံတကာတိုα€€္ပြဲα€”ဲα‚•α€œိုα‚• ဆိုα€œိုတာ α€™α€Ÿုတ္ပါ။ ႏိုင္ငံတကာα€€ α€…α€…္α€™်α€€္ႏွာ တခုထေα€”α€”ဲ႕ပဲ α€‘α€žံုး၀င္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီα€œိုတိုα€€္α€›ာα€™ွာ ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€…α€”α€…္ဆိုတဲ့ α€…α€”α€…္α€€ို တိုα€€္ရပါα€™α€š္။ α€…α€”α€…္α€›ဲα‚• ဆိုးα€€်ိဳးေတြα€€ို ေα€–ာ္ထုတ္ရပါα€™α€š္။ ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€…α€”α€…္α€€ို တိုα€€္ျပီး α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္ α€€ို α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€šူရပါα€™α€š္။ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ ေျပာင္းα€œဲျခင္း ျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€™ွာα€€ α€žα‚‘ာα€”္ထမ်ိဳးα€™်ိဳးα€›ွိပါα€α€š္။ 

 α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€‘α€žြင္α€žα‚‘ာα€”္α€™်ား 

ထခ်ိဳα‚•α€€ ေခတ္α€™ွီα€–ြံα‚•ျα€–ိဳးတိုးတက္α€™ွဳေα€•αšα€™ွာ ထေျα€α€α€Š္တဲ့ ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€€ို α€œα€€္ခံα€šံုαΎα€€α€Š္ၾကပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ ထရဆိုရင္ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္ α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€™ွဳ မတိုင္ခင္α€™ွာ α€…ီးပြားေα€›းတိုးတက္α€™ွဳα€›ွိα€›α€™α€š္၊ civil society ထားေα€€ာင္းα€–ိုα‚• α€œိုထပ္α€™α€š္α€œိုα‚• α€šူဆၾကပါα€α€š္။ α€’ါေၾကာင့္ α€…ီးပြားေα€›း၊ α€œူα€™ွဳေα€›းတိုးတက္α€™ွဳα€€ို ဦးα€…ားေပးα€œုပ္ေဆာင္α€›α€™α€š္α€œိုα‚• ဆိုၾကပါα€α€š္။ α€–ြံα‚•ျα€–ိဳးဆဲတိုင္းျα€•α€Š္ေတြα€™ွာ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ α€…α€”α€…္α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္တဲ့ထခါ α€’ီα€œိုα€…ီးပြားေα€›း၊ α€œူα€™ွဳေα€›းတိုးတက္α€™ွဳေတြ α€™α€›ွိရင္ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္α€€ို ခိုင္ျα€™ဲေထာင္α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€–ိုα‚• α€™ျα€–α€…္ႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း ေထာα€€္ျပေျပာဆိုၾကပါα€α€š္။ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းα€•α€Šာα€›ွင္ Lipset α€€ α€…ီးပြားေα€›းတိုးတက္α€œာတာα€”ဲ႕ထမွ် α€’ီα€™ိုα€€α€›α€€္တစ္ ထုပ္ခ်ဳပ္ေα€›းα€…α€”α€…္ ထေα€€ာင္α€‘α€‘α€Š္ေα€•αšα€œာႏိုင္α€™α€š့္ ထခြင့္ထေα€›းေတြα€€ို α€…ီးပြားေα€›းတိိုးတက္α€™ွဳα€”ဲα‚• α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ေတြα€”ဲα‚• ဆက္ႏြα€š္ျပီး ထဆိုျပဳထားခဲ့ပါα€α€š္။ 

α€•α€Šာα€›ွင္ Huntington α€€α€œဲ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€–ို႕ထတြα€€္ α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြ၊ α€žα€™α€‚ၢα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြ α€”α€Š္းပါးα€›α€™α€š္α€œိုα‚• ထဆိုျပဳထားပါα€α€š္။ α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြα€€ို ေခတ္α€™ွီα€–ြံα‚•ျα€–ိဳးတိုးတက္တဲ့ ႏိုင္ငံၾကီးထျα€–α€…္ α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္ ျပီးα€™ွα€žာ ခြင့္ျပဳα€›α€™α€š္α€œိုα‚• α€žူα‚•α€›ဲα‚• ေခတ္α€žα€…္ modernization theory α€™ွာ ေα€–ာ္ျပထားပါα€α€š္။ α€•α€Šာα€›ွင္ Moore α€€α€€်ေတာ့ Lipset α€›ဲα‚• α€œူα€™ွဳေα€›း၊ α€…ီးပြားေα€›း တိုးတက္α€™ွဳ α€œိုထပ္ခ်α€€္ ထေျခထေα€”ေတြα€€ို α€œα€€္ခံထားခဲ့ေα€•α€™α€š့္ α€œူထု α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြα€€α€œဲ ထေα€›းၾကီးေၾကာင္း α€•α€‘α€‘α€œွိဳင္း α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွုျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€œိုα‚• ေα€αšα€†ိုၾကတဲ့ ထဂၤα€œα€”္၊ ျပင္α€žα€…္၊ ထေα€™α€›ိα€€α€”္ျα€•α€Š္ေထာင္α€…ုႏိုင္ငံေတြα€€ို α€₯ပမာေပးျပီး ဆိုထားခဲ့ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီα€žα‚‘ာα€”္α€Ÿာ ႏိုင္ငံထခ်ိဳα‚•α€›ဲα‚• ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€™ွာ α€™ွα€”္α€€α€”္ေα€•α€™α€š့္ ေα€•αšα€ူဂီ၊ ဂရိ၊ ပီα€›ူး တိုα‚•α€™ွာα€€်ေတာ့ α€™α€™ွα€”္α€€α€”္ခဲ့ပါα€˜ူး။ α€˜ာα€œိုα‚•α€œဲဆိုေတာ့ α€’ီႏိုင္ငံေတြα€™ွာ α€…ီးပြားေα€›း၊ α€œူα€™ူေα€›း တိုးတက္α€™ွဳ preconditions ေတြ α€™α€›ွိပဲ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္ ထေα€€ာင္α€‘α€‘α€Š္ေα€•αšα€œာခဲ့တာျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ ေခတ္α€™ွီα€–ြံα‚•ျα€–ိဳးတိုးတက္တဲ့ α€…α€€္α€™ွဳႏိုင္ငံၾကီးေတြျα€–α€…္တဲ့ ထာဂ်င္တီးα€”ား၊ α€˜α€›ာဇီး၊ ခ်ီα€œီ၊ ေတာင္α€€ိုးα€›ီးα€šားႏိုင္ငံေတြα€™ွာα€€်ေတာ့ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳα€€ α€’ီα€–ြံα‚•ျα€–ိဳးဆဲႏိုင္ငံေα€œးေတြေα€”ာα€€္α€™ွာα€™ွ စတင္ခဲ့တာျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ 

 α€α€်ိဳα‚•α€€α€€်ေတာ့ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ဆိုတာα€€ို transitology ဆိုတဲ့ elite ေတြကပဲ ဦးေဆာင္ေျပာင္းα€œဲတဲ့ ျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ထေα€”α€”ဲα‚• α€›ွဳျမင္ၾကပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€™ွာα€€်ေတာ့ resurrection of Civil Society ဆိုတဲ့ ထေျခထေα€”α€€ ထဓိα€€α€€်ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီထေျခထေα€”α€€ ျα€•α€Š္α€žူα€œူထု၊ ေα€€်ာင္းα€žား၊ α€‘α€œုပ္α€žα€™ား၊ α€˜ာα€žာေα€›းထဖြဲα‚•α€‘α€…α€Š္းေတြထားα€œံုးα€€ ကနဦးα€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ (Initial democratization) α€€ို α€œူထုထားα€”ဲα‚• တြα€”္းထားေပးα€œိုα€€္တာျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€™ွာ α€œူထုα€›ဲα‚• ထခန္းα€€α‚‘α€€ Initial democratization α€€ို စတြα€”္းခဲ့တဲ့ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ ထေα€›းေတာ္ပံုၾကီးေတြα€™ွာ ဆႏၡျပပြဲေတြ၊ street theatre ေတြα€™ွာ ပါ၀င္α€™ွဳျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ 

 α€’ီα€œိုတြα€”္းထားေပးα€œိုα€€္တဲ့ထခါα€™ွာ ထာဏာα€›ွင္ထုပ္α€…ုα€”ဲα‚• α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီထုပ္α€…ုဆိုတဲ့ ထင္ထားα€…ုၾကီးႏွα€…္ရပ္ထြα€€္ေα€•αšα€œာပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီထုပ္α€…ုႏွα€…္ရပ္α€€ေα€” ေခါင္းေဆာင္ elite ေတြ ေα€•αšα€‘ြα€€္α€œာပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီ elites ေတြα€Ÿာ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳၾကီးα€€ေα€” ေα€•αšα€‘ြα€€္α€œာတာျα€–α€…္α€›ံုα€™α€€ α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳα€›ဲα‚• α€›α€œာα€’္α€€ိုပါ ထိα€”္းခ်ဳပ္ႏိုင္တဲ့ ထင္ထားα€…ုေတြ ျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ ဆက္α€œα€€္ထေα€€ာင္α€‘α€‘α€Š္ ေα€–ာ္ေဆာင္ႏိုင္α€œား၊ ရပ္တန္α‚•ျပီး political deadlock ျα€–α€…္α€žြားα€œာဆိုတာα€€ေတာ့ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€˜α€€္α€€ ေခါင္းေဆာင္ေတြα€Ÿာ α€œူထုတိုα€€္ပြဲထရွိα€”္ေα€€ာင္းα€…α€₯္α€™ွာ α€–ြဲα‚•α€›α€™α€š့္ ထတိုα€€္ထခံဦးေဆာင္ၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးα€› (α€žိုα‚•α€™α€Ÿုတ္) ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€”ဲα‚• တြဲα€–α€€္α€–ြဲα‚•α€…α€Š္းα€›α€™α€š့္ ပါ၀ါα€›ွα€š္α€šာ ၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးα€› စတဲ့ၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးα€›ေတြα€€ို α€–ြဲα‚•α€…α€Š္းႏိုင္တဲ့ α€‘α€›α€Š္ထခ်င္းα€”ဲα‚• ထေျα€™ာ္ထျမင္α€›ွိα€™α€›ွိ ဆိုတာα€™ွာ α€™ူα€α€Š္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ါေၾကာင့္ α€’ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ α€™ေထာင္ျမင္α€–ူးဆိုရင္ α€’ါα€Ÿာ α€œူထုၾကီးေၾကာင့္ α€™α€Ÿုတ္ပဲ α€œူထုၾကီးေα€›ြးခ်α€š္α€œိုα€€္တဲ့ elite ေတြα€›ဲα‚• α€‘α€›α€Š္ထခ်င္း၊ ထေတြးထေα€αš၊ α€…ီα€™ံα€œုပ္α€€ိုင္ပံုေတြα€”ဲ႕ပဲ ဆိုင္ပါα€α€š္။ 

α€’ီα€œိုα€”ဲα‚• α€’ီ elite ေတြα€€ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€€ို ထေα€€ာင္α€‘α€‘α€Š္ α€™ေα€–ာ္ႏိုင္ေတာ့α€˜ူးဆိုတာ ေα€žα€်ာα€œာတဲ့ထခါ ေα€”ာα€€္တၾကိα€™္ α€œူထုတိုα€€္ပြဲေတြ ထပ္α€™ံ ေα€•αšα€‘ြα€€္α€›ျပန္ပါα€α€š္။ cycle of protests α€œိုα‚•ေα€αšα€†ိုႏိုင္ပါα€α€š္။ ထဲα€’ီထခါα€™ွာ α€’ီα€œူထုတိုα€€္ပြဲေတြα€€ေα€” elite ေတြ ထပ္ထြα€€္α€œာႏိုင္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€™ွာ တခုα€žα€ိထားα€…α€›ာα€›ွိတာα€€ ေα€›ွ႕ပိုင္း α€œူုထုတိုα€€္ပြဲေတြα€€ elite ေတြα€›ဲα‚• ထခန္းက႑ပဲျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ α€œူထုတိုα€€္ပြဲေတြျα€–α€…္α€œာျပီး ထပ္α€™ံေα€•αšα€‘ြα€€္α€œာတဲ့ elite α€‘α€žα€…္ေတြα€€ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€€ို ေထာင္ေထာင္ျမင္ျမင္ စတင္α€žြားα€™ွာα€€ို ေα€›ွα‚•α€€ တခ်ိဳα‚• elite ေတြα€€ α€…ိုးα€›ိα€™္တတ္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီထခါα€™ွာ α€’ီα€œိုα€…ိုးα€›ိα€™္တဲ့ elite ေတြထဲα€™ွာ α€œုပ္ေဆာင္ပံု ပံုα€…ံႏွα€…္α€™်ိဳးထပ္ထြα€€္α€œာပါα€α€š္။ ပထမတမ်ိဳးα€€ α€œူထုတိုα€€္ပြဲေတြ ထပ္ျပီး α€™ေα€•αšα€œာေထာင္ α€”α€Š္းα€™်ိဳးα€…ံုα€”ဲα‚• တားဆီးတာျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ ေα€›ွα‚•α€œဲမတက္၊ ေα€”ာα€€္α€œဲ မဆုတ္တဲ့ ပိုေα€”ျα€™ဲ၊ α€€်ားေα€”ျα€™ဲပံုα€…ံပါ။ 

α€’ုတိα€šα€α€™်ိဳးα€€ေတာ့ α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳ ထားေα€€ာင္းα€œာတဲ့ထခါ ေα€”α€›ာ၀င္α€šူα€–ိုα‚• ၾကိဳးα€…ားတာေတြျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ ေခါင္းေဆာင္α€žα€…္ေတြ ထပ္မထြα€€္α€œာေထာင္ ေα€›ွ႕ပိုင္းα€€ေα€” ပိတ္ပင္ထားα€™ွဳေတြ α€œုပ္ေα€œ့α€›ွိပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ α€™ွာ political deadlock ျα€–α€…္α€žြားတဲ့ ႏိုင္ငံေတြα€›ဲα‚• α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ ထင္ထားα€…ုေတြထၾကားα€™ွာ ျα€–α€…္ေα€œ့α€›ွိတဲ့ ေα€”α€›ာα€šူα€™ွဳေတြ၊ ထခ်င္းခ်င္း တိုα€€္ခိုα€€္ ေျပာဆိုα€™ွဳေတြ၊ α€™်ိဳးဆက္α€žα€…္α€œα€€္ဆင့္α€€α€™္းα€™ွဳ ထားα€”α€Š္းတာေတြ၊ α€™ေထာင္ျမင္ခဲ့တဲ့ ထေတြ႕ထၾကံဳα€”ဲα‚• ျဖတ္α€žα€”္းα€™ွဳα€€ိုပဲ တိုင္းတာα€žα€္α€™ွတ္ေနတာေတြ ထားα€œံုးα€Ÿာ α€’ီα€žေα€˜ာတရားα€™ွာ ထေျα€α€α€Š္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီထင္ထားα€…ုေတြα€™ွာ α€’ီα€œို elite ေတြα€™်ားေနရင္ ေα€”ာα€€္တၾကိα€™္α€œူထုတိုα€€္ပြဲα€€ေα€” ထပ္ထြα€€္α€œာα€™α€š့္ elite ေတြα€›ဲα‚• ထခန္းα€€α‚‘α€€ို α€€α€”္α‚•α€žα€္α€œိုα€€္α€žα€œို ျα€–α€…္α€žြားတာေၾကာင့္ ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ ေထာင္ျမင္α€–ိုα‚• ခက္ခဲတတ္ပါα€α€š္။ ထေျα€™ာ္ ထျမင္ၾကီးα€™ွဳ၊ α€€ိုα€š္α€€်ိဳးထက္ ထမ်ားထေα€›းα€€ို ဦးα€…ားေပး α€…α€₯္းα€…ားα€™ွဳေတြα€›ွိα€–ိုα‚•α€€ α€’ီα€‘α€žြင္α€žα‚‘ာα€”္ေထာင္ျမင္α€™ွဳα€›ဲα‚• ေα€žာ့ခ်α€€္ပါပဲ။ 

 Initial democratization စတင္α€žြားျပီဆိုရင္α€œဲ α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြα€€ တျခားα€‘α€žြင္α€žα‚‘ာα€”္ေတြα€”ဲα‚• ဆက္α€›ွိေα€”α€› α€™ွာျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ တခ်ိဳα‚•ႏိုင္ငံေတြα€™ွာ ကနဦးα€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ စတင္ျပီးတဲ့ထခါ ႏိုင္ငံα€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€™α€š့္ ေခါင္းေဆာင္ေတြ ေα€•αšα€‘ြα€€္ေα€”ျပီထထင္α€”ဲα‚• α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳα€€ ထားα€”α€Š္းα€žြားပါα€α€š္။ α€’ါေα€•α€™α€š့္ α€’ီေခါင္းေဆာင္ေတြα€€ α€œူထုα€›ဲα‚• ထနာဂတ္ α€˜α€α€ိုးတက္α€™ွဳα€€ို α€–α€”္တီးထားထုတ္တာ α€™ျပဳα€œုပ္ပဲ ထာဏာα€œုα€™ွဳေတြ၊ α€€ိုα€š္α€€်ိဳးα€›ွာα€™ွဳေတြ ျပဳα€œုပ္α€œာတာα€œဲ α€›ွိေနတတ္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ါα€Ÿာ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€™ွာတင္ α€™α€Ÿုတ္ပါα€˜ူး။ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္တိုင္းα€™ွာ ျα€–α€…္ေα€œ့α€›ွိပါα€α€š္။ ထာα€›ွα€”ဲα‚• ထာα€–α€›ိα€€ႏိုင္ငံေတြα€™ွာ α€€ိုα€œိုα€”ီထစိုးα€›α€œα€€္ေထာα€€္α€€ α€œြတ္ေျα€™ာα€€္α€€ာα€…α€™ွာ α€œြတ္α€œα€•္ေα€›းα€”ဲα‚• ထတူ ေα€•αšေပါα€€္α€œာခဲ့တဲ့ ထစိုးα€›ေတြα€™ွာα€œဲ ေα€–ာα€€္ျပန္တဲ့ ေခါင္းေဆာင္ေတြ ထမ်ားၾကီးေα€•αšα€‘ြα€€္ခဲ့α€–ူးပါα€α€š္။ 

ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€…α€”α€…္α€€ေα€” α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…α€”α€…္ ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ ကနဦးထစမွာα€œဲ α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳα€™ွာ ပါ၀င္ခဲ့တာα€€ို ထခြင့္ေα€€ာင္းα€šူျပီး ေခါင္းေဆာင္ေα€”α€›ာα€œုα€–ိုα‚• ၾကိဳးα€…ားα€žူေတြ၊ ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€˜α€€္ေတာ္α€žားေα€Ÿာင္းေတြထဲα€€ ထုပ္ခ်ဳပ္ေα€›း၊ α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္ေα€›း α€šႏၳα€›ားထဲα€™ွာ α€€်α€”္α€›α€…္ခဲ့α€žူေတြα€”ဲα‚• α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€˜α€€္ေတာ္α€žားေတြထၾကားα€€ ပဋိပကၑေတြ၊ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းα€žα€™ားထခ်င္းခ်င္း ေα€…ာင္းေျα€™ာင္းတိုα€€္ခိုα€€္α€™ွဳေတြ၊ ေငြေၾကးထရွဳပ္ထရွင္းေတြ စတဲ့ ထေထြေထြ ျပႆα€”ာေတြα€Ÿာ ေα€•αšေပါα€€္α€œာα€™ွာပဲျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ါေα€•α€™α€š့္ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္ဆိုတာ α€œူထုဆီα€€ ထာဏာα€žα€€္ဆင္းတဲ့ α€…α€”α€…္ျα€–α€…္တာေၾကာင့္ α€’ီα€œိုျပႆα€”ာေတြα€€ို α€œြတ္α€œα€•္ပြင့္α€œα€„္းတဲ့ α€™ီα€’ီα€šာေတြ၊ ထာဏာα€›ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းပါတီေတြα€€ို တျခားပါတီα€”ဲα‚• ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းထဖြဲα‚•α€‘α€…α€Š္းေတြα€€ ျပန္α€œွα€”္ေα€…ာင့္αΎα€€α€Š့္α€™ွဳေတြ၊ α€œာα€˜္ေပးα€œာα€˜္α€šူα€€ိα€…α₯ေတြα€€ို ထိα€”္းခ်ဳပ္ႏိုင္တဲ့ ထုပ္ခ်ဳပ္ေα€›းα€šႏၱα€›ားေတြα€”ဲα‚• ေျα€–α€›ွင္းα€žြားႏိုင္α€™ွာ ျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ 

α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီဆိုတာ α€…α€”α€…္တခုျα€–α€…္ျပီး၊ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ဆိုတာα€€ တျခားα€…α€”α€…္ေတြα€€ေα€” α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္α€€ို ျပဳျပင္α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္တဲ့ ျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္တရပ္α€žာျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€…α€”α€…္α€”ဲα‚• α€€ြာျခားတာα€€ ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€…α€”α€…္α€€ို α€œူေတြα€›ဲα‚• α€…ိတ္ေα€”α€…ိတ္ထားေတြ၊ ထတၱေတြ၊ ေα€œာα€˜၊ ေα€™ာα€Ÿα€€ ထိα€”္းခ်ဳပ္ေα€™ာင္းႏွင္ျပီး၊ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္α€™ွာα€€်ေတာ့ α€…α€”α€…္α€›ဲα‚• တန္α€–ိုးေတြ၊ α€šံုαΎα€€α€Š္ခ်α€€္ေတြα€€ α€œူေတြα€›ဲα‚• ထတၱေတြ၊ ေα€œာα€˜၊ ေα€™ာα€Ÿေတြα€€ို ထိα€”္းခ်ဳပ္ေα€™ာင္းႏွင္တာျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ ထာဏာα€›ွင္ α€˜α€€္ေတာ္α€žားေတြα€€ α€™ေα€€ာင္းα€˜ူးα€œိုα‚• တထစ္ခ် ေျပာα€œိုα‚•α€™α€›α€žα€œို α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€˜α€€္ေတာ္α€žားေတြα€€ိုα€œဲ α€žူေတာ္စင္ေတြα€œိုα‚• α€˜α€š္α€žူα€™ွ တပ္ထပ္α€™ေျပာႏိုင္α€˜ူး။ ပိုα€€္ဆံα€œα€€္ထဲ α€™α€›ွိခင္α€™ွာ α€Ÿိုα€œူ၊ α€’ီα€œူ α€€ူα€Šီα€–ိုα‚• α€…α€₯္းα€…ားα€žူေတြα€Ÿာ α€œα€€္ထဲ ပိုα€€္ဆံα€α€€α€š္ေα€›ာα€€္α€œာတဲ့ထခ်ိα€”္α€™ွာ α€€ိုα€š့္ထက်ိဳးα€”ဲα‚• α€€ိုα€š့္α€™ိα€žားα€…ုထတြα€€္ ပိုျပီး ဦးα€…ားေပးၾကတာပဲ။ α€’ါα€Ÿာ ထျပစ္ဆိုα€…α€›ာα€™α€Ÿုတ္α€˜ူး။ α€œူα‚•α€žα€˜ာ၀ပဲျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ 

α€’ီα€œို α€œူ႕ထတၱေတြα€€ို ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€…α€”α€…္α€€ တြα€”္းထားေပးα€α€š္။ ထာဏာα€›α€šူα€œိုα€…ိတ္၊ ထာဏာဆုပ္α€€ိုင္ထားα€œိုα€…ိတ္၊ ထာဏာα€”ဲα‚• ေပ်ာ္ေα€™ြ႕တဲ့ α€…ိတ္ေတြα€Ÿာ ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€…α€”α€…္α€€ တြα€”္းပိုα‚•ေပးတဲ့ α€…ိတ္ေα€”α€…ိတ္ထားေတြပဲျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္α€€ α€€်ေတာ့ α€’ီα€œို α€œူ႕ထတၱေတြα€€ို ထိα€”္းခ်ဳပ္α€œိုα€€္α€α€š္။ α€œူထမ်ား ဆႏၡနဲα‚• α€œူထမ်ားထက်ိဳးα€€ို ေဆာင္α€›ြα€€္α€–ိုα‚• α€œူထမ်ားα€€ ေα€›ြးခ်α€š္ ထားα€žူေတြα€Ÿာ ထမ်ားထက်ိဳးα€™αΎα€€α€Š့္ပဲ α€€ိုα€š့္ထတၱေα€”ာα€€္α€€ိုပဲ α€œိုα€€္ေနတာα€€ို α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ α€…α€”α€…္α€€ ခြင့္α€™ျပဳα€˜ူး။ α€’ါေၾကာင့္ α€œူထုတရပ္α€œံုးα€›ဲα‚• ထနာဂတ္တိုးတက္ေα€›းα€€ို ျα€•α€Š္α€žူα€œူထုထေα€•αšα€™ွာ ထေျα€α€α€Š္တဲ့ ျα€•α€Š္α€žူα‚•α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္α€€α€žာ ေα€–ာ္ေဆာင္ေပးႏိုင္တာျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ 

 α€α€်ိဳα‚•α€€ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းထေတြးထေα€αšα€”ဲα‚• α€˜α€€္α€œိုα€€္α€™ွဳေတြα€™ွာ α€œူα€€ို ထေျခခံျပီး α€…α€₯္းα€…ားဆံုးျဖတ္တတ္αΎα€€α€α€š္။ α€…α€”α€…္ေα€•αšα€‘ေျခခံ α€™α€…α€₯္းα€…ားαΎα€€α€˜ူး။ α€’ီα€œိုα€œူα€™်ိဳးေတြα€Ÿာ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီထင္ထားα€…ုေတြထဲα€€ α€œူေတြα€›ဲα‚• ထားα€”α€Š္းခ်α€€္ေတြ၊ ထတၱေတြα€€ို ေတြα‚•α€œာ၊ α€žိα€œာတဲ့ထခါα€€်ေတာ့ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳထေα€•αš ထထင္ထျမင္α€œြဲα€œာေတာေတြα€›ွိα€α€š္။ α€’ါα€Ÿာ α€œူုထေα€•αšα€™ွာ ထေျα€α€α€Š္α€…α€₯္းα€…ားα€™ွဳ၊ ပုဂၢိဳα€œ္ေα€›းα€€ိုးα€€ြα€š္α€™ွဳေတြα€›ဲα‚• α€›α€œာα€’္ေတြပဲျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ α€œူα‚•α€…ိတ္ဆိုတာ ထင္မတန္ဆန္းα€€်α€š္α€α€š္။ ထခ်ိα€”္၊ ေα€”α€›ာ၊ ထေျခထေα€”ေတြα€Ÿာ α€œူေတြα€›ဲα‚• α€…ိတ္α€€ို α€œႊα€™္းα€™ိုးႏိုင္α€α€š္။ ထေျခထေα€”၊ ထခ်ိα€”္ထခါထရ α€œူα€žα€္α€™ွဳα€€်ဴဳးα€œြα€”္α€žြားα€™ိα€žူ ထမ်ားα€…ုα€Ÿာ α€™α€€်ဴးα€œြα€”္ခဲ့α€…α€₯္တုα€”္းα€€ α€œူထခ်င္းခ်င္း α€žα€္ျဖတ္တာα€Ÿာ α€™ေα€€ာင္းα€˜ူးα€œိုα‚• α€œα€€္ခံခဲ့αΎα€€α€žူေတြခ်α€Š္းပါပဲ။ α€’ါေα€•α€™α€š့္ α€‘α€žိတခုα€”ဲα‚• α€™ျပီးα€˜ူး။ α€’ါေၾကာင့္ ထိα€”္းခ်ဳပ္ေပးα€–ိုα‚•α€₯ပေဒဆိုတာ ေα€•αšα€œာα€α€š္။ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ ဆိုတာα€œဲ α€’ီα€œိုပဲ။ ထစိုးရထုပ္ခ်ဳပ္ေα€›းα€šႏၱα€›ားα€”ဲα‚• α€’ီα€šႏၱα€›ားထဲα€€ α€œူေတြα€€ို ထိα€”္းခ်ဳပ္ေပးတဲ့ α€…α€”α€…္α€žာα€œွ်င္ျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ 

 α€’ီေတာ့ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€˜α€€္ေတာ္α€žားေတြα€›ဲα‚• α€…α€”α€…္α€”ဲα‚• α€™α€€ိုα€€္α€Šီႏိုင္တဲ့ ထတၱေတြ၊ α€œုပ္ရပ္ေတြα€Ÿာα€œဲ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ α€…α€œာတဲ့ထခါα€™ွာ α€…α€”α€…္α€€ ျပန္ထိα€”္းခ်ဳပ္α€žြားα€™ွာပဲျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ α€…α€”α€…္α€”ဲα‚• α€™α€€ိုα€€္α€Šီα€žူေတြα€€ို α€…α€”α€…္α€€ α€–α€š္α€›ွားပစ္ေα€œ့α€›ွိတာ ဓမၼတာα€žာျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ တိုင္းျα€•α€Š္တခုα€™ွာ α€…α€”α€…္ဆိုးα€›ွိေနရင္ α€…α€”α€…္ဆိုးα€”ဲα‚• α€™α€€ိုα€€္α€Šီα€žူေတြ ျα€•α€Š္ပထြα€€္တာα€™်ားျပီး brain drain ဆိုတဲ့ ဦးေႏွာα€€္ α€šိုα€…ီးα€™ွဳျပႆα€”ာျα€–α€…္ေα€œ့α€›ွိα€α€š္။ α€…α€”α€…္ေα€€ာင္းα€€ို ျပန္α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္တဲ့ထခါ brain gain ျα€–α€…္α€œာတတ္α€…ျα€™ဲပါပဲ။ α€’ီထခါα€™ွာ α€…α€”α€…္α€”ဲα‚• α€™α€€ိုα€€္α€Šီတဲ့ α€œူေတြα€›ဲα‚• α€…ိတ္ေတြα€€ို α€…α€”α€…္α€€ ျပဳျပင္α€™ွာ ျα€–α€…္α€žα€œို၊ ျပဳျပင္α€œိုα‚• α€™α€›α€žူေတြα€€α€œဲ α€…α€”α€…္α€€ေα€” α€œြင့္ထြα€€္α€žြားα€™ွာပါပဲ။ α€’ါေၾကာင့္ α€œူေတြα€€ို αΎα€€α€Š့္ျပီး α€…α€”α€…္ေα€›းα€›ာα€€ို ဆံုးျဖတ္α€œိုα‚• α€™α€›α€˜ူးဆိုတာ α€œူထမ်ား α€žိα€”ားα€œα€Š္α€–ိုα‚• α€œိုထပ္ပါα€α€š္။ 

 α€’ီα€œိုα€œူေတြα€›ဲα‚• ထာဏာ၊ ေငြေၾကးα€”ဲα‚• ပတ္α€žα€€္ျပီး ေα€–ာα€€္α€œြဲေα€–ာα€€္ျပန္ျα€–α€…္တတ္တဲ့ α€žα€˜ာ၀ေတြα€€ို ထိα€”္းခ်ဳပ္ႏိုင္တဲ့ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္ ထျα€™α€…္တြα€š္ခိုင္α€™ာα€–ိုα‚• ထတြα€€္ α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳ ေတြα€Ÿာ α€‘α€œြα€”္ပဲ ထေα€›းၾကီးပါα€α€š္။ 


 α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳႏွင့္ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ 


α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြα€Ÿာ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္တေα€œွ်ာα€€္α€œံုးα€™ွာ α€‘α€œြα€”္ပဲ ထေα€›းၾကီးα€œွပါα€α€š္။ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းα€•α€Šာα€›ွင္ေတြα€€ α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြα€›ဲα‚• ထခန္းα€€α‚‘α€€ို α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ ထဆင့္ ငါးဆင့္ခြဲျပီး ပံုေα€–ာ္ျα€•α€žαΎα€€α€•ါα€α€š္။ ပထမထဆင့္α€€ေတာ့ ဆန္α‚•α€€်င္ေတာ္α€œွα€”္ေα€›း (resistance) ထဆင့္ျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ α€™ိα€žားα€…ုထတြင္းα€™ွာ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္ α€€်င့္α€žံုးျခင္းα€€ ထစျပဳα€œိုα‚• ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€…α€”α€…္ထျα€™α€…္တြα€š္ေနတဲ့ ထံုးတမ္းα€…α€₯္α€œာေတြα€€ို ဆန္α‚•α€€်င္တာ၊ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›း α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳ α€€ြα€”္α€šα€€္ေတြα€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္တာေတြျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ α€‘α€œုပ္α€žα€™ား၊ ေα€€်ာင္းα€žား၊ ေတာင္α€žူα€œα€š္α€žα€™ား၊ α€˜ာα€žာေα€›းထဖြဲα‚•α€‘α€…α€Š္းေတြ ထပါထ၀င္ α€œူထုα€œူတန္းα€…ားα€‘α€œႊာα€™်ိဳးα€…ံု ထၾကားα€™ွာ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳα€€ို ေထာα€€္ခံ ထားေပးα€™ွဳα€›ွိα€œာေထာင္ α€…α€Š္းα€›ံုးα€œွံဳေဆာ္ေပးα€›α€™ွာျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီα€€ေနတဆင့္ ထာဏာα€›ွင္ဆန္α‚•α€€်င္ေα€›း α€€ြα€”္α€šα€€္ၾကီးα€€ို α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€›α€™ွာျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီα€€ြα€”္α€šα€€္α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€™ွဳα€Ÿာ ထဆံုးထျဖတ္ေပးα€™α€š့္ α€œူထုတိုα€€္ပြဲထတြα€€္ α€‘α€œြα€”္ပဲ ထေα€›းၾကီးပါα€α€š္။ ခ်ီα€œီ၊ ပိုα€œα€”္၊ ထာဂ်င္တီးα€”ား ႏိုင္ငံေတြα€™ွာ α€˜ာα€žာေα€›းထဖြဲα‚•α€‘α€…α€Š္းေတြα€€ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳ α€€ြα€”္α€šα€€္ေတြα€€ို ေထာα€€္ခံေပးခဲ့αΎα€€α€α€š္။ α€€ြα€”္α€šα€€္ခ်ိတ္ဆက္α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြထတြα€€္ ထေထာα€€္ထကူေပးခဲ့α€α€š္။ 

တခ်ိဳα‚• α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြα€™ွာα€€်ေတာ့ α€’ီα€€ြα€”္α€šα€€္ α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€™ွဳα€€ို ထားေα€€ာင္းေထာင္ α€™α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္ပဲ α€œူထုα€€ို ထတင္းတြα€”္းျပီး α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားခိုင္းတတ္αΎα€€α€α€š္။ α€’ီထဆင့္မပါပဲ α€œူထုတိုα€€္ပြဲေα€αšα€α€္αΎα€€α€α€š္။ α€žα€€္ဆိုင္α€›ာα€”ီးစပ္α€žူα€™်ားα€”ဲα‚• ထစုထဖြဲα‚•ေα€œးေတြα€–ြဲα‚•ျပီး α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳα€€ို ေဇာင္းတင္αΎα€€α€α€š္။ ထဲα€’ီα€œို α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြα€€ ေထာင္ျမင္ႏိုင္ေခ်α€”α€Š္းပါးα€α€š္။ α€˜ာα€œိုα‚•α€œဲဆိုေတာ့ α€€ြင္းα€œα€š္ေခါင္α€™ွာ α€šာα€šီတဲေα€œးေတြ α€žြားထိုးတာα€”ဲα‚• တူα€œို႕ပဲျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ ေα€œျပင္းα€™ုα€”္တိုင္း α€œဲα€€်ေα€›ာ α€’ီα€šာα€šီတဲေα€œးေတြα€€ α€‘α€œြα€š္တကူ ျပိဳပ်α€€္α€žြားျပန္ေα€›ာ။ ထုတ္ျα€™α€…္ မခိုင္ပဲ ထိα€™္ေဆာα€€္α€œိုα‚• α€™α€›α€˜ူး။ ထိα€™္α€™ွာα€™ွ ထထပ္ေပါင္းα€™်ားα€…ြာပါတဲ့ တိုα€€္ၾကီးေတြ ဆိုရင္ ထခ်ိα€”္α€šူထုတ္ျα€™α€…္ခ်α€›α€α€š္။ တခ်ိဳα‚• α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြα€€်ေတာ့α€œဲ α€œူထုထဲα€™ွာ α€™α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္ပဲ α€”ီးα€›ာα€…ုျပီး ထဖြဲα‚•α€–ြဲ႕ၾကတာေတြ α€žိပ္ထားα€žα€”္ျပန္ေα€›ာ။ α€˜ာα€”ဲα‚• တူα€œဲဆိုေတာ့ ထိα€™္α€™ေဆာα€€္ပဲ ေခါင္α€™ိုး ထုတ္α€œုပ္ေα€›းα€œုပ္တာα€”ဲα‚• တူα€α€š္။ ေခါင္α€™ိုးေတြပဲα€›ွိျပီး ထုတ္ျα€™α€…္α€›ွိα€–ိုα‚• ေα€”ေα€”α€žာα€žာ၊ ထိα€™္α€›ဲα‚• structure ေတာင္ α€…ာα€›ြα€€္ေα€•αšα€™ွာ α€™α€›ွိျα€–α€…္ေနတဲ့ α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြ ထာα€›ွα€”ဲα‚• ထာα€–α€›ိα€€α€€ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြα€™ွာ α€›ွိေနဆဲပဲျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ 

 α€’ီα€œိုα€”ဲα‚• α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€™ွဳေတြ α€œုပ္ျပီး α€€ြα€”္α€šα€€္ေတြ ခ်ိတ္ဆက္α€œာၾကတဲ့ ထခါ ထေျခထေα€”α€€ို αΎα€€α€Š့္ျပီး တိုα€€္ပြဲα€„α€š္၊ တိုα€€္ပြဲα€œα€္၊ တိုα€€္ပြဲၾကီးေတြ ပံုေα€–ာ္α€›α€α€š္။ တိုα€€္ပြဲα€™ေα€–ာ္ေဆာင္ရင္ α€Šီα€Šြတ္ေα€›းဆိုတာ α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€œိုα‚• α€™ျα€–α€…္ႏိုင္တာေၾကာင့္ပဲ။ α€Šီα€Šြတ္ေα€›းဆိုတာ တိုα€€္ပြဲα€”ဲα‚• ေပါင္းစပ္ျပီးα€™ွ α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္ရတာ ျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ တခ်ိဳα‚•α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြα€€်ေတာ့ တိုα€€္ပြဲα€™α€›ွိပဲ α€Šီα€Šြတ္ေα€›းα€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€™ွဳα€€ို ေဇာင္းေပးα€œုပ္ၾက၊ ထခ်ိα€”္α€€ုα€”္ေနၾကျပန္α€α€š္။ တိုα€€္ပြဲထဆင့္α€™α€›ွိပဲ α€Šီα€Šြတ္ပါα€α€š္ဆိုရင္ α€’ီα€Šီα€Šြတ္ေα€›းα€€ α€α€€α€š့္α€Šီα€Šြတ္ေα€›းေတာ့ ထြα€€္α€œာα€™ွာ α€™α€Ÿုတ္α€˜ူး။ α€…ာα€›ြα€€္α€Šီα€Šြတ္ေα€›းပဲ ျα€–α€…္α€œာα€™ွာပဲ။ ကမၻာα€™ွာ ေထာင္ျမင္ခဲ့တဲ့ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ေတြα€™ွာα€€ေတာ့ α€’ီα€…ာα€›ြα€€္ α€Šီα€Šြတ္ေα€›းပံုα€…ံေတြ ေခတ္α€™α€…ားခဲ့α€˜ူး။ α€‘α€œုပ္α€žα€™ားα€žα€•ိတ္၊ ေα€€်ာင္းα€žားα€žα€•ိတ္၊ α€˜ာα€žာေα€›းα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳ၊ ျα€™ိဳα‚•ျα€•α€œူထု α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳ၊ α€œα€š္α€žα€™ား α€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳစတဲ့ တိုα€€္ပြဲေတြα€€ေနတဆင့္ တိုင္းျα€•α€Š္တခုα€œံုးα€›ဲα‚• α€œူထူα€œူတန္းα€…ားα€‘α€œႊာ α€‘α€žီးα€žီး ပါ၀င္α€œာတဲ့ α€Šီα€Šြတ္ေα€›းα€€ို ေα€–ာ္ေဆာင္ႏိုင္ခဲ့αΎα€€α€α€š္။ α€’ီထဆင့္α€€ို upsurge of mobilization ထဆင့္α€œိုα‚• α€•α€Šာα€›ွင္ေတြα€€ α€žα€္α€™ွတ္αΎα€€α€α€š္။ α€’ီထဆင့္α€™ွာ α€œူထုတိုα€€္ပြဲထားေα€€ာင္းα€œာတဲ့ထခါ ထာဏာα€›ွင္ α€…α€”α€…္ျပိဳα€œဲα€žြားα€α€š္။ 
α€’ါေα€•α€™α€š့္ ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€…α€”α€…္ျပိဳα€œဲα€α€š္ဆိုတာ ထုပ္ခ်ဳပ္ေα€›းα€šႏၱα€›ားတခုα€œံုး ျပိဳα€œဲα€žြားတာ α€™α€Ÿုတ္α€˜ူး။ ေခတၱရပ္ဆိုင္း α€žြားတာပဲျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ α€’ါα€€ို ျပန္ျပီး α€˜α€š္α€žူα€€ α€‘α€žα€€္α€žြင္းα€™α€œဲ။ ထာဏာα€›ွင္ေα€Ÿာင္း α€˜α€€္ေတာ္α€žားေတြα€€ α€‘α€žα€€္α€žြင္းႏိုင္α€™α€œား၊ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€˜α€€္ေတာ္α€žားေတြα€€ α€‘α€žα€€္α€žြင္းႏိုင္α€™α€œား။ ထာဏာα€›ွင္ေα€Ÿာင္း α€˜α€€္ေတာ္α€žားတခ်ိဳα‚•α€”ဲα‚• α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ α€˜α€€္ေတာ္α€žားတခ်ိဳα‚• ပူးေပါင္းျပီး α€‘α€žα€€္α€žြင္းႏိုင္α€™α€œား။ α€’ီထဆင့္ α€€ို transition to procedural democracy α€œိုα‚• α€•α€Šာα€›ွင္ေတြα€€ α€žα€္α€™ွတ္ထားα€α€š္။ ထဓိα€€ ထြα€€္α€œာα€›α€™α€š့္ α€›α€œာα€’္α€€ေတာ့ ၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးရပဲ။ ၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးရမထြα€€္α€œာမခ်င္း α€’ီထဆင့္α€™ေထာင္ျမင္ေα€žးα€˜ူးα€œိုα‚• ဆိုႏိုင္α€α€š္။ ၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးα€› ဆိုတာα€™ွာα€œဲ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€˜α€€္ေတာ္α€žားေတြα€€ ဦးေဆာင္α€–ြဲα‚•α€…α€Š္းတဲ့ ၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးα€›၊ ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€˜α€€္α€€ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€œိုα€žူေတြα€€ ဦးေဆာင္α€–ြဲα‚•α€…α€Š္းတဲ့ ၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးα€›၊ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€”ဲα‚• ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€˜α€€္ေတာ္α€žားေတြ ပူးေပါင္းα€–ြဲα‚•α€…α€Š္းတဲ့ ၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးရဆိုျပီးα€›ွိα€žα€œို တခါတရံ α€˜α€š္α€œိုα€™ွ α€Šွိမရတဲ့ α€˜α€€္ႏွα€…္α€˜α€€္ထၾကားα€™ွာ ႏိုင္ငံတကာα€€ ေခတၱα€œာထုပ္ခ်ဳပ္ေပးတဲ့ ၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးရဆိုျပီး ပံုα€…ံထမ်ိဳးα€™်ိဳးα€›ွိα€α€š္။ 

 α€’ီα€œိုၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးα€›ေα€•αšေပါα€€္α€œာျပီးα€™ွ ေα€›ြးေα€€ာα€€္ပြဲα€€်င္းပတာ၊ ထမ်ိဳးα€žားျပန္α€œα€Š္α€žα€„့္ျမတ္ေα€›း ေဆြးေႏြးတာေတြα€€ို α€œုပ္α€›α€™ွာျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ တခ်ိဳα‚• α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳေတြα€™ွာα€€်ေတာ့ ထဆင့္ေတြα€€ ေတာ္ေတာ္ေα€€်ာ္αΎα€€α€α€š္။ Transition to procedural democracy ထဆင့္ေ၀းα€œိုα‚•၊ upsurge of mobilization ထဆင့္ေတာင္ α€™ေα€›ာα€€္ေα€žးα€˜ူး။ resistance ထဆင့္α€™ွာ α€šာα€šီတဲေα€œးေတြ ထိုးျပီးα€›ံုေα€œာα€€္α€”ဲα‚• ေတြ႕ဆံုေဆြးေႏြးေα€›း၊ α€’ိုင္α€šာေα€œာ့ခ္ဆိုျပီး ေထာ္တတ္αΎα€€α€α€š္။ “α€™ုα€”္႕ဆီေၾကာ္α€˜α€š္ေα€”α€™ွα€”္းα€™α€žိ၊ ႏွဳတ္ခမ္းα€”ာα€”ဲα‚• α€α€Š့္ပါ့α€™α€œား” ဆိုα€žα€œို α€’ိုင္α€šာေα€œာ့ခ္ထတြα€€္ conditions ေတြပါ ခ်တတ္αΎα€€α€α€š္။ Upsurge of mobilization ထဆင့္ ျα€–α€…္α€žြားျပန္ရင္α€œဲ ၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးα€›α€–ြဲα‚•α€…α€Š္းေα€›းα€œိုα€œို၊ α€’ိုင္α€šာေα€œာ့ခ္α€œုပ္ေα€›းα€œိုα€œို α€žဲα€žဲα€€ြဲα€€ြဲα€™α€›ွိၾကျပန္α€˜ူး။ α€’ိုင္α€šာေα€œာ့ခ္ ဆိုတာ α€˜α€š္α€œိုထေျခထေα€”၊ α€˜α€š္α€œိုထဆင့္α€™ွာ ေα€αšα€›α€α€š္ဆိုတာα€œဲ α€”ားα€™α€œα€Š္ၾကျပန္α€˜ူး။ Transition to procedural democracy ထဆင့္α€™ေα€›ာα€€္ပဲα€”ဲα‚• α€’ိုင္α€šာေα€œာ့ခ္ဆိုတာ ေα€αšα€œိုα‚•α€™α€›α€˜ူး။ ေတာင္ထာα€–α€›ိα€€α€™ွာ α€’ိုင္α€šာေα€œာ့ခ္ေထာင္ျမင္ခဲ့α€α€š္ဆိုတာα€€ α€’ီျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€™ွာ ႏိုင္ငံတကာα€…α€…္α€™်α€€္ႏွာ ထားေα€€ာင္းα€™ွဳα€”ဲα‚• α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳα€€ို α€™α€œြα€”္ဆန္ႏိုင္ေတာ့ပဲ incumbent de Klerk ထစိုးα€›α€€ ၾကားျဖတ္ ထိα€™္ေα€…ာင့္ထစိုးရထေα€”α€”ဲα‚• transition to procedural democracy ထဆင့္α€€ို ထရင္ေα€€်ာ္ျဖတ္ခဲ့ျပီးα€™ွ α€’ိုင္α€šာေα€œာ့ခ္α€”ဲα‚• power-sharing coalition ထစိုးα€› ျα€–α€…္α€œာα€α€š္။ ေα€”ာα€€္α€™ွ ႏိုင္ငံေတာ္ထစိုးα€›α€€ို ေα€›ြးေα€€ာα€€္ပြဲα€”ဲα‚• ေα€›ြးခ်α€š္တင္ေျα€™ွာα€€္ခဲ့တာျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ α€’ီα€œိုα€™α€Ÿုတ္ပဲ တခ်ိဳα‚•ႏိုင္ငံေတြα€€်ေတာ့ ထဆင့္ေတြခုα€”္ခုα€”္ေα€€်ာ္ျပီး၊ ထျမင့္ဆံုးထဆင့္ ၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးα€›၊ ထနိα€™့္ဆံုး α€’ိုင္α€šာေα€œာ့ခ္စတဲ့ α€™α€Ÿာα€—်ဴα€Ÿာα€™်ိဳးေတြ ေα€›ာေထြး ခ်ၾကေα€œေတာ့ resistance ထဆင့္α€€α€α€Š္းα€€ α€’ိုင္α€šာေα€œာ့ခ္ေထာ္α€žူα€€ေထာ္၊ upsurge of mobilization ထဆင့္α€™ွာ ေထာ္α€žူα€€ေထာ္ ျα€–α€…္α€œာပါေα€œေα€›ာ။ ဆိုးα€€်ိဳးα€€ေတာ့ α€€ိုα€š့္α€—်ဳα€Ÿာ၊ α€›α€”္α€žူα‚•α€—်ဴα€Ÿာျပန္ျα€–α€…္ျပီး transition to procedural democracy ထဆင့္ထိα€™ေα€›ာα€€္ခင္α€™ွာ α€’ိုင္α€šာေα€œာ့ခ္α€”ဲα‚• α€œα€™္းα€œြဲတာေတြ ခံα€›ေတာ့တာပါပဲ။ 

α€’ီα€œို strategic failures ေတြα€Ÿာ ထာဏာα€›ွင္ေတြထတြα€€္ေတာ့ ထေα€€ာင္းဆံုးα€‘α€žံုးခ်α€œα€€္α€”α€€္ေတြပါပဲ။ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းα€€ိα€…α₯ရပ္ေတြα€œို α€œူα€žα€”္းေပါင္းα€™်ားα€…ြာα€›ဲα‚• ထနာဂတ္α€€ံၾကမၼာα€€ို α€–α€”္တီးေျပာင္းα€œဲႏိုင္တဲ့ α€™α€Ÿာα€—်ဴα€Ÿာေတြ α€‘α€žာထားα€œိုα‚• α€œူတေα€šာα€€္α€˜α€ ေထာင္ျမင္တိုးတက္ေα€›းα€™ွာေတာင္ ထဆင့္ေα€€်ာ္ ျဖတ္α€œα€™္းα€œိုα€€္α€œို႕မရပါα€˜ူး။ တက္ေနခ်ိα€”္α€™ွာ α€™α€žိα€žာေα€•α€™α€š့္ ျပဳတ္α€€်တဲ့ထခ်ိα€”္α€™ွာ α€α€œိα€™့္ေခါα€€္ေα€€ြး α€”ဲα‚• α€˜α€š္α€œိုα€™ွ ျပန္α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€šူα€œိုα‚•α€™α€›ေထာင္ ျပဳတ္α€€်တတ္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ါေၾကာင့္ ထေျခခံထုတ္ျα€™α€…္α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€™ွဳα€Ÿာ ထရမ္းα€€ို ထေα€›းၾကီးα€œွပါα€α€š္။ 

 α€’ီα€œိုα€”ဲα‚• transition to procedural democracy ထဆင့္α€™ွာ ၾကားျဖတ္ထစိုးα€›ေတြα€œဲ ေα€•αšေပါα€€္ျပီး ထမ်ိဳးα€žားရင္ၾကားေα€…့ေα€›းေတြ၊ ေတြ႕ဆံုေဆြးေႏြးပြဲေတြ ေα€•αšေပါα€€္α€œာျပီးတဲ့ထခါα€€်ေတာ့ ေα€”ာα€€္တဆင့္ျα€–α€…္တဲ့ democratic consolidation ထဆင့္α€€ို တက္α€œွα€™္းရပါေတာ့α€α€š္။ α€’ီထဆင့္ေထာင္ျမင္α€–ို႕ဆိုတာα€€α€œဲ α€œူထုα€œူတန္းα€…ားထားα€œံုးα€›ဲα‚• တန္းတူα€›α€Š္တူထခြင့္ထေα€›းေတြα€€ို ထာမခံခ်α€€္ေပးႏိုင္α€™α€š့္ ျα€•α€Š္α€žူα‚•α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€€ို α€…ြဲα€…ြဲျα€™ဲျα€™ဲα€šံုαΎα€€α€Š္α€œα€€္ခံα€žူေတြ ေα€•αšေပါα€€္α€œာα€™ွ ျα€–α€…္ႏိုင္ပါα€α€š္။ α€œူဆိုတာα€€α€œဲ ေα€œာα€˜၊ ေα€™ာα€Ÿေတြα€”ဲα‚• မကင္းႏိုင္ပါα€˜ူး။ α€›ာထူး၊ ထာဏာ၊ ဂုဏ္α€žိကၑာေတြα€€ို α€žိပ္ျမတ္ႏိုးတတ္ၾကပါα€α€š္။ ေငြေၾကးα€™α€™α€€္ေα€™ာပါα€˜ူး၊ ထာဏာα€™α€™α€€္ေα€™ာပါα€˜ူး၊ ေα€”α€›ာα€™α€œိုခ်င္ပါα€˜ူးα€œိုα‚• α€˜α€š္ေα€œာα€€္ပဲေျပာေနပါေα€…၊ α€œα€€္ထဲ α€’ါေတြ ေα€›ာα€€္α€œာတဲ့ထခါ၊ α€œုပ္ပိုင္ခြင့္ေတြ ေα€›ာα€€္α€œာတဲ့ထခါα€€်α€™ွ ေျပာခဲ့တဲ့α€…α€€ားေတြα€€ို ေα€™့α€žြားတတ္α€žူေတြ တကမၻာα€œံုးα€™ွာ α€’ုα€”ဲα‚•ေα€’းပဲျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ 

 α€œူα‚•α€žα€˜ာ၀ဆိုတာα€€α€œဲ ထစြဲα€‘α€œα€”္းα€€ ၾကွီးတတ္ပါα€α€š္။ တျခား α€₯α€…α₯ာ၊ ထာဏာမဆိုထားα€”ဲα‚•။ ေနထိုင္α€›ာ ထိα€™္ေα€œးα€€ ထိုင္ေα€”α€€် α€€ုα€œားထိုင္ေα€œးα€€ို α€žူတပါး၀င္ထိုင္ေနရင္ေတာင္ α€›α€€္ၾကာα€œာတဲ့ထခါ α€…ိတ္ထဲ α€…ႏိုးα€…ေα€”ာင့္α€€ေတာ့ ျα€–α€…္တတ္ၾကစျα€™ဲ။ α€˜ာα€™α€Ÿုတ္တဲ့ α€‘α€œုပ္ေα€œးα€™ွာေတာင္ α€”ာα€™α€Š္ေα€œးα€”ဲα‚• α€›ာထူးေα€œးα€›ဲ႕ထေα€•αšα€™ွာ α€€ိုα€š့္α€œα€€္α€™ွတ္ေα€œး ထိုးα€œိုα€€္ရတာα€€ို α€‘α€›α€žာေတြ႕တတ္ၾကစျα€™ဲ။ α€‘α€œုပ္α€€ ထြα€€္α€œိုα€€္ရရင္၊ α€’ါα€™ွ α€™α€Ÿုတ္ ပင္စင္α€šူα€œိုα€€္α€›α€α€š္ဆိုရင္ေတာင္ တခါတရံα€™ွာေတာ့ ျပန္ေတြးရင္း α€α€žα€ž ျα€–α€…္တတ္ၾကစျα€™ဲ။ α€’ီα€œိုα€žေα€˜ာα€žα€˜ာ၀ရွိေနတဲ့ α€œူα‚•ေα€œာα€€α€™ွာ α€›ာထူး၊ထာဏာ၊ α€œုပ္ပိုင္ခြင့္ေတြα€€ို တမ္းတမက္ေα€™ာတတ္ၾကတာ၊ α€€ုα€œားထိုင္ေတြα€€ို ထိုင္ျပီးရင္ ေα€”α€›ာα€–α€š္α€™ေပးခ်င္ၾကတာ ထဆန္းေတာ့ α€™α€Ÿုတ္ပါ။ α€’ီထစြဲေတြα€Ÿာ ေα€›α€›ွα€Š္ၾကာရင္ ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€‘α€žြင္ေဆာင္α€žြားတာေၾကာင့္ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္α€”ဲα‚• ျပန္ထိα€”္းခ်ဳပ္ ေပးၾကရတာပါ။ 

 α€’ါေၾကာင့္ α€’ီထဆင့္ေထာင္ျမင္α€–ိုα‚•α€™ွာ α€…ာα€”α€š္ဇင္းα€™ီα€’ီα€šာေတြ၊ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္α€€ို ေα€šာင္ျပထေα€•αšα€šံ α€šံုαΎα€€α€Š္ခ်α€€္ α€™α€Ÿုတ္ပဲ ထမွα€”္α€α€€α€š္α€šံုαΎα€€α€Š္α€žူေတြα€›ဲα‚• ထခန္းα€€α‚‘α€Ÿာ α€‘α€œြα€”္ထေα€›းၾကီးပါα€α€š္။ α€…α€…္α€˜α€€္- ထရပ္α€˜α€€္ ဆက္ဆံေα€›းေတြ၊ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္ထေα€•αš ထေျα€α€α€Š္တန္α€–ိုးထားတဲ့ ႏိုင္ငံေတာ္α€€ာα€€ြα€š္ေα€›း၊ ႏိုင္ငံေတာ္α€œံုျခံဳေα€›း၊ ႏိုင္ငံျခားဆက္ဆံေα€›း α€™ူ၀ါα€’ေတြ၊ ႏိုင္ငံα€žံုးα€…α€›ိတ္ခြဲေ၀မွဳေတြ၊ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€α€›α€€္တစ္ functioning α€”ဲα‚• α€€ိုα€€္α€Šီα€™α€š့္ α€€်င့္ထံုးေတြ၊ good governance α€€်င့္ထံုးေတြ ေα€•αšα€‘ြα€€္α€œာα€–ိုα‚• α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္α€šူရပါα€α€š္။ ထတတ္α€•α€Šာα€›ွင္ေတြα€”ဲα‚• α€‘α€žိα€•α€Šာα€›ွင္ေတြ ထခ်ိဳးα€Šီα€Šီ ေα€•αšα€‘ြα€€္α€œာα€–ိုα‚• α€œိုထပ္α€œွပါα€α€š္။ Civil Society ထားေα€€ာင္းα€œာα€–ိုα‚• α€œိုပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ α€…α€”α€…္α€”ဲα‚• α€€ိုα€€္α€Šီα€™α€š့္ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းα€šα€₯္ေα€€်းα€™ွဳ α€”ဲα‚• ထေတြးထေα€αšေတြ ထြα€”္းα€€ားα€œာေထာင္ ျပဳျပင္ α€α€Š္ေဆာα€€္ရပါα€™α€š္။ တခ်ိဳα‚•ႏိုင္ငံေတြα€™ွာ democratic consolidation ထဆင့္ေα€›ာα€€္ျပီးα€™ွ ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€…α€”α€…္α€€ို ျပန္ေα€›ာα€€္α€žြားတတ္ပါα€α€š္။ 

α€’ီα€œို democratization's derailment ျα€–α€…္ရတဲ့ ထေၾကာင္းရင္းေတြα€€ို α€•α€Šာα€›ွင္α€™်ားα€€ ေα€œ့α€œာေα€–ာ္ထုတ္ၾကရာα€™ွာ ထခ်α€€္ၾကီး ငါးခ်α€€္α€€ို ေတြα‚•α€›ွိၾကရပါα€α€š္။ ပထမထခ်α€€္α€€ ႏိုင္ငံေတာ္α€›ဲα‚• α€€ာα€€ြα€š္ေα€›းထင္ထားα€…ုျα€–α€…္တဲ့ တပ္α€™ေတာ္α€€ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းα€™ွာ ၀င္ေα€›ာα€€္α€…ြα€€္α€–α€€္α€™ွဳျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီα€œိုα€…ြα€€္α€–α€€္ႏိုင္α€™ွဳေတြ ျα€–α€…္ပြားရတာα€€ေတာ့ ႏိုင္ငံေတာ္ထေα€›းေα€•αš ထေျခထေα€”ေတြα€™ွာ power of the command of the army α€Ÿာ ထရပ္α€žား ႏိုင္ငံေတာ္ထၾကီးထကဲ α€œα€€္ထဲα€™ွာ α€™α€›ွိα€œို႕ပဲျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီထေျခထေα€”α€™်ိဳးα€™ွာ တိုင္းျα€•α€Š္α€Ÿာ α€…α€…္ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€œα€€္ေထာα€€္α€€ို ျပန္α€œα€Š္α€€်ေα€›ာα€€္ α€žြားတတ္ပါα€α€š္။ ေα€”ာα€€္တခ်α€€္α€€ေတာ့ ျα€•α€Š္ပႏိုင္ငံα€™်ားα€›ဲα‚•α€…ြα€€္α€–α€€္α€™ွဳျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€™ွာ ေα€•αšေပါα€€္α€œာတဲ့ထစိုးα€›α€Ÿာ ျα€•α€Š္ပႏိုင္ငံတခုခုα€›ဲα‚• αΎα€žα€‡ာခံ ထစိုးα€›ျα€–α€…္α€œို႕မရပါα€˜ူး။ ျα€•α€Š္α€žူα€œူထုထက်ိဳးα€€ိုပဲ ပထမဦးα€…ားေပးαΎα€€α€Š့္α€›ွဳတဲ့ ထစိုးα€›ျα€–α€…္ရပါα€™α€š္။ α€’ီα€œိုα€™α€Ÿုတ္ပဲ α€œα€€္၀ဲ၊ α€œα€€္α€šာထင္ထားၾကီးႏိုင္ငံေတြα€›ဲα‚• α€›ုပ္ေα€žးထစိုးα€›ေတြျα€–α€…္α€œာတဲ့ထခါα€™ွာ α€™ူ၀ါα€’ေα€›းα€›ာေတြα€™ွာ conflict of interests ျα€–α€…္တာေတြ၊ ထင္ထားၾကီးႏိုင္ငံေတြα€›ဲα‚• α€™ူ၀ါα€’ေα€›းα€›ာ၊ ေα€’α€žα€ြင္းေα€›းα€›ာ ထားျပိဳင္α€™ွဳေတြα€€ေα€” ေα€•αšα€œာတဲ့ proxy political conflicts ေတြျα€–α€…္ျပီး α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€Ÿာ ေႏွာင့္ေႏွးα€žြားတာေတြ ျα€–α€…္တတ္ပါα€α€š္။ 

α€”ာα€€္တခ်α€€္α€€ေတာ့ ျα€•α€Š္တြင္းα€…α€…္ျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳα€€ာα€œα€™ွာ ေခါင္းေဆာင္ေတြα€›ဲα‚• ထေျα€™ာ္ထျမင္α€”ဲα‚• ဆံုးျဖတ္α€žံုးα€žα€•္α€™ွဳေတြα€Ÿာ α€‘α€œြα€”္ထေα€›းၾကီးပါα€α€š္။ α€œူα€™်ိဳးေα€›း၊ α€˜ာα€žာေα€›း α€€ြဲျပားα€™ွဳα€™်ားတဲ့ တိုင္းျα€•α€Š္ေတြα€™ွာ ႏိုင္ငံα€α€Š္ေထာင္α€™ွဳα€žα‚‘ာα€”္α€”ဲα‚• α€…α€”α€…္ α€™ွα€”္α€€α€”္α€–ိုα‚• α€œိုပါα€α€š္။ state formation conflicts ေတြ α€›ွိတဲ့ထခါα€™ွာ α€…α€”α€…္တက်α€™ေျα€–α€›ွင္းႏိုင္ရင္ ေα€›α€›ွα€Š္ ျα€•α€Š္တြင္းα€…α€…္ျα€–α€…္α€œာပါα€α€š္။ ျα€•α€Š္တြင္းα€…α€…္ပြဲေတြ α€™်ားα€œာတာα€”ဲ႕ထမွ် တပ္α€™ေတာ္ထခန္းα€€α‚‘α€€α€œဲ တိုးျမင့္α€œာပါα€α€š္။ ၾကာα€œာေတာ့ ျα€•α€Š္တြင္းα€…α€…္α€”ဲ႕ထတူု တပ္α€™ေတာ္α€€ ထင္ထားၾကီးα€œာပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီα€œိုျα€–α€…္α€œာတဲ့ထခါα€™ွာ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€€ို ေα€”ာα€€္ျပန္ဆြဲα€žα€œိုျα€–α€…္ပါေတာ့α€α€š္။ α€…α€…္α€‘α€žံုးα€…α€›ိတ္α€€ ၾကီးျမင့္α€œာေတာ့ α€…ီးပြားေα€›းတိုးတက္α€™ွဳα€€ ေႏွာင့္ေႏွးα€œာျပန္ပါα€α€š္။ α€…ီးပြားေα€›းတိုးတက္α€™ွဳေႏွာင့္ေႏွးေတာ့ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›း α€™α€α€Š္ျငိα€™္α€™ွဳေတြα€€ ျα€–α€…္α€œာပါေα€œေα€›ာ။ α€’ီα€œိုα€”ဲ႕ပဲ ထာဏာα€›ွင္ႏိုင္ငံျα€–α€…္α€œိုα€€္၊ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီႏိုင္ငံျα€–α€…္α€œိုα€€္α€”ဲα‚• α€žံα€žα€›ာα€œα€Š္ေနၾကတဲ့ ႏိုင္ငံေတြ ကမၻာα€™ွာ ထမ်ားၾကီးပါပဲ။ 



α€€္တခ်α€€္α€€ တရားα€₯ပေα€’α€…ိုးα€™ိုးေα€›းျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ ထေျပာα€œြα€š္α€žေα€œာα€€္ α€œα€€္ေတြα‚•α€™ွာ α€‘α€œြα€”္ခဲα€šα€₯္းတဲ့ α€€ိα€…α₯ရပ္တခုပါ။ ထာα€–α€›ိα€€ႏိုင္ငံေတြα€›ဲα‚• α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ တုံα‚•ေႏွးေα€”α€›ျခင္း ထေၾကာင္းရင္းေတြα€™ွာ α€’ီထခ်α€€္α€€ ထဓိα€€ျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€…α€”α€…္α€œα€€္ေထာα€€္α€™ွာ ႏွα€…္ေပါင္းα€™်ားα€…ြာ α€€်ေα€›ာα€€္ခဲ့တဲ့ ႏိုင္ငံေတြα€™ွာ organized crimes ေတြ ၾကီးα€…ိုးပါα€α€š္။ ထာဏာα€›ွင္α€˜α€€္ေတာ္α€žားေတြေα€€ာ၊ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€˜α€€္ေတာ္α€žားေတြပါ α€œူα€€ုα€”္α€€ူးα€™ွဳေတြ၊ α€…ိα€”္α€”ဲα‚• ေα€€်ာα€€္α€™်α€€္ရတနာ ခိုးထုတ္α€™ွဳေတြ၊ α€žα€…္ခိုးထုတ္α€™ွဳေတြ ထပါထ၀င္ တခါတရံα€™ွာ α€˜ိα€”္းα€€ုα€”္α€€ူးα€™ွဳေတြα€”ဲ႕ပါ ဆက္စပ္တတ္တာေတြ α€›ွိပါα€α€š္။ α€₯ပမာဆိုရင္- ထာα€–α€›ိကတိုα€€္α€™ွာ ထာα€–α€›ိကထေα€”ာα€€္ပိုင္းေα€’α€žα€Ÿာ ထေα€›ွα‚•ေတာင္ထာα€›ွ α€˜ိα€”္းျα€–ဴα€žα€š္α€šူေα€›းα€›ဲα‚• port of entry ျα€–α€…္ျပီး၊ ထာα€–α€›ိα€€ေတာင္ပိုင္းေα€’α€žα€Ÿာ တကမၻာα€œံုးα€€ ခိုးα€šူထားတဲ့α€šာα€₯္α€”ဲα‚• α€šာα€₯္ထပိုပစα₯α€Š္းေတြα€›ဲα‚• α€€ုα€”္α€žြα€š္α€™ွဳဇံုျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ 

α€”ာ

 α€’ီα€œို α€₯ပေα€’ျပင္ပ α€…ီးပြားေα€›းေတြα€Ÿာ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္α€”ဲα‚• good governance practices ေတြα€€ို α€œာα€˜္ေပးα€œာα€˜္α€šူα€™ွဳေတြ၊ ထၾကမ္းα€–α€€္α€™ွုဳေတြ၊ money laundering activities ေတြα€”ဲα‚• undermine α€œုပ္ေα€œ့α€›ွိပါα€α€š္။ တခါတရံα€™ွာဆိုရင္ ထမတ္ေα€œာင္းေတြα€€ို ေα€”ာα€€္α€€ြα€š္α€€ α€€်ားα€€α€”္ေပးျပီး α€™ူ၀ါα€’ေα€›းα€›ာα€™ွာ ၾကိဳးဆြဲα€™ွဳေတြ α€›ွိα€œာတတ္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ါေၾကာင့္ α€₯ပေα€’ျပင္α€•α€œုပ္ငန္းေတြα€€ို ႏွိα€™္နင္းတဲ့ထခါα€™ွာ တရားα€₯ေပေα€’α€…ိုးα€™ိုးေα€›းျပႆα€”ာα€€ေα€” ႏိုင္ငံေα€›း၊ α€œူα€™်ိဳးေα€›းျပႆα€”ာ မတက္ေထာင္ α€…α€”α€…္တက် α€€ိုင္တြα€š္ေျα€–α€›ွင္းတတ္α€™ွဳေတြ α€œိုထပ္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီα€œိုα€™α€Ÿုတ္ရင္ ႏိုင္ငံα€€ α€…α€…္α€˜ုရင္ႏိုင္ငံ (warlords state) ျα€–α€…္α€žြားတတ္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီထခ်α€€္α€Ÿာ α€‘α€œြα€”္ပဲ ထေα€›းၾကီးα€œွပါα€α€š္။ democratic consolidation α€€ို ျခိα€™္းေခ်ာα€€္α€™ွဳေပးႏိုင္တဲ့ ထႏၱα€›ာα€š္ပဲျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ 


α€€္တခ်α€€္α€€ေတာ့ ပုဂၢိဳα€œ္ေα€›းα€€ိုးα€€ြα€š္α€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ α€œူထခ်င္းခ်င္းေα€œးα€…ားα€™ွဳα€”ဲα‚• α€œူထခ်င္းခ်င္း α€€ိုးα€€ြα€š္α€™ွဳ α€‘α€žြင္α€žα‚‘ာα€”္မတူα€˜ူး။ ေα€œးα€…ားα€™ွဳα€€ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€žေα€˜ာတရားေα€•αš ထေျခခံျပီး၊ α€€ိုးα€€ြα€š္α€™ွဳα€€ ထာဏာα€›ွင္ α€žα‚‘ာα€”္ဆန္α€α€š္။ α€œူတေα€šာα€€္α€€ို ေα€œးα€…ားα€žူα€€ ဆက္ဆံေα€›းα€™ွာα€œဲ ေα€œးα€…ားα€…ြာ ဆက္ဆံα€α€š္။ ျပဳα€™ူေဆာင္α€›ြα€€္α€™ွဳေတြα€™ွာα€œဲ α€€ိုα€š့္ထျမင္α€€ို ျပတ္ျပတ္α€žားα€žား တင္ျα€•α€α€š္။ ေ၀ဖန္α€…α€›ာα€›ွိရင္ ေ၀ဖန္ေα€›းα€œုပ္α€α€š္။ α€žူတပါးေ၀ဖန္α€žံၾကားရင္α€œဲ ထျပဳα€žေα€˜ာα€œား၊ ထပ်α€€္α€žေα€˜ာα€œား ခြဲျခမ္းဆံုးျဖတ္α€α€š္။ α€€ိုးα€€ြα€š္α€žူα€€်ေတာ့ ထဲα€œိုα€™α€Ÿုတ္ေတာ့α€˜ူး။ α€˜ာα€œုပ္α€œုပ္ေထာα€€္ခံα€α€š္။ α€…ိတ္ထဲα€™ွာ α€™α€™ွα€”္α€˜ူးထင္ရင္ေတာင္ α€žူα€œုပ္တာဆိုရင္ α€™α€™ွားေα€œာα€€္ပါα€˜ူး။ ငါပဲ α€™ွားတာပါα€œိုα‚• တြα€€္ျပန္α€α€š္။ α€€ိုα€š္α€€ α€™ေ၀ဖန္α€žα€œို α€žူတပါးα€€ ေ၀ဖန္ရင္α€œဲ မၾကိဳα€€္α€˜ူး။ ၾကက္ေခါင္းဆိတ္မခံ α€œိုα€€္ထိုးႏွα€€္တတ္α€α€š္။ α€€ိုα€š္ပိုင္ဆံုးျဖတ္ခ်α€€္၊ α€€ိုα€š္ပိုင္ထေတြးထေα€αš၊ α€€ိုα€š္ပိုင္α€œုပ္ငန္းေဆာင္တာ ဆိုတာ α€™α€›ွိေတာ့α€˜ူး။ α€€ိုးα€€ြα€š္α€žူα€›ဲα‚• ဆံုးျဖတ္ခ်α€€္၊ ထေတြးေα€‘α€αš၊ α€œုပ္ငန္းေဆာင္တာα€€ိုပဲ α€‘α€α€Š္ျပဳα€α€š္၊ ထေα€€ာင္α€‘α€‘α€Š္ေα€–ာ္α€α€š္။ 

α€”ာ

 α€’ီα€œိုထေျခထေα€”α€™်ိဳးα€€ α€…ီးပြားေα€›း၊ α€œူα€™ွဳဆက္ဆံေα€›းα€™ွာဆိုရင္ေတာင္ ေα€œာင္းα€›ိပ္α€™ိေနတတ္α€α€š္။ α€™ိα€žားα€…ုေα€›းα€™ွာေတာင္ α€žားα€žα€™ီးα€€ α€™ိα€˜α€€ို α€€ိုးα€€ြα€š္α€™ွဳ α€œြα€”္α€€ဲေနရင္ α€™ိα€˜α€™α€›ွိခ်ိα€”္α€™ွာ α€™α€œုပ္တတ္၊ α€™α€€ိုင္တတ္α€”ဲα‚• α€™ိα€˜α€œα€€္ငုတ္α€œα€€္ရင္း α€…ိီးပြားေα€›းα€€ိုေတာင္ ဆက္မထိα€”္းႏိုင္ျα€–α€…္တတ္α€α€š္။ α€œူဆိုတာ α€‘α€žα€€္ထရြα€š္ထရ ရင့္α€€်α€€္α€œာα€›α€α€š္။ α€„α€š္α€…α€₯္α€€ာα€œα€™ွာ “ငါ့ေα€–ေဖပဲ ေတာ္α€α€š္၊ တတ္α€α€š္“ ျα€–α€…္တတ္တာ α€žα€˜ာ၀ေα€•α€™α€š့္ ထရြα€š္ေα€›ာα€€္α€œာခ်ိα€”္α€™ွာ ငါ့ထေα€–α€€ α€˜α€š္ေα€”α€›ာα€™ွာေတာ္α€α€š္၊ α€˜α€š္ေα€”α€›ာα€™ွာ ေခ်ာ္α€α€š္၊ α€˜α€š္ေα€”α€›ာα€™ွာ ထားα€žာခ်α€€္α€›ွိα€α€š္၊ α€˜α€š္ေα€”α€›ာα€™ွာ ထားα€”α€Š္းခ်α€€္α€›ွိα€α€š္၊ α€™ွα€”္α€α€š္၊ α€™ွားα€α€š္ ဆိုတာα€€ို α€žံုးα€žα€•္α€›ေတာ့α€α€š္။ α€žူေျပာတဲ့α€…α€€ားေတြထဲα€€ α€˜α€š္α€…α€€ားα€€ိုေဆာင္α€›α€™α€š္၊ α€˜α€š္α€…α€€ားα€€ို α€•α€š္α€›α€™α€š္ဆိုတာα€€ိုα€œဲ α€œα€€္α€›ွိထေျခထေα€”α€”ဲα‚•α€€ိုα€€္α€Šွိျပီး α€…α€₯္းα€…ားα€›ေတာ့ α€™ွာျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ α€’ီα€œိုဆိုα€œို α€’ါα€Ÿာ α€™ေα€œးα€…ားတာ α€™α€Ÿုတ္α€˜ူး။ ဖခင္ထေα€”α€”ဲα‚• ေα€œးα€…ားα€™ွဳα€€ α€žα€•္α€žα€•္၊ α€žူ႕ထေျပာ၊ α€žူα‚•α€œုပ္ရပ္α€€ို α€žံုးα€žα€•္ေα€œ့α€œာα€™ွဳα€€ α€žα€•္α€žα€•္ျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ α€’ီα€œိုα€™α€Ÿုတ္ပဲ α€™်α€€္α€€α€”္းα€€ိုးα€€ြα€š္α€™ွဳα€œုပ္ရင္ α€€ိုα€š့္α€˜α€၊ α€€ိုα€š့္ထေျခထေα€”α€”ဲα‚• α€™α€€ိုα€€္α€Šီတဲ့ α€œိုα€€္α€”ာေဆာင္α€›ြα€€္α€™ွဳေတြ ျα€–α€…္α€œာတတ္α€α€š္။ α€’ါα€€ α€œူတေα€šာα€€္ α€˜α€ေα€›းα€›ာေတြα€™ွာတင္ျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ 

α€œူတေα€šာα€€္ α€˜α€ေα€›းα€›ာα€™ွာေတာင္ α€’ီေα€œာα€€္ထေα€›းၾကီးရင္ ႏိုင္ငံတခုα€€ံၾကမၼာα€™ွာα€€်ေတာ့ ပိုဆိုးα€α€š္။ ေခါင္းေဆာင္ဆိုတာ ေα€œးα€…ားα€›α€™α€š့္ α€œူα€žားေတြျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ α€’ါေα€•α€™α€š့္ α€€ိုးα€€ြα€š္ျပီး ထိုင္α€€α€”္ေတာ့ေα€”α€›α€™α€š့္ α€œူေတြ α€™α€Ÿုတ္α€˜ူး။ ေျပာα€žα€™ွ် α€€ိုα€š့္α€…ိတ္α€€ ပါပါ၊ မပါပါ ေခါင္းα€Šိα€™့္α€œα€€္ခံေα€”α€›α€™α€š့္ α€žူေတြ α€™α€Ÿုတ္α€˜ူး။ α€žူဆိုထားα€žα€™ွ် α€œိုα€€္α€”ာေα€–ာ္ေဆာင္α€›α€™α€š္ α€™α€Ÿုတ္α€˜ူး။ α€žူႏွုတ္ထြα€€္α€…α€€ားα€™ွα€”္α€žα€™ွ် ထမိα€”္α‚•α€™α€Ÿုတ္α€˜ူး။ α€œα€€္ေတြ႕ထေျခထေα€”α€”ဲα‚• α€€ိုα€€္α€Šီα€žα€œား၊ ျα€–α€…္ႏိုင္ေခ်α€›ွိα€žα€œားဆိုတာ α€žံုးα€žα€•္α€›α€™α€š္။ ျပန္α€œွα€”္ ေဆြးေႏြးα€™ွဳα€œုပ္α€›α€™α€š္။ တျခားျα€–α€…္ႏိုင္ေခ်ေတြα€€ို α€…α€₯္းα€…ားα€›α€™α€š္။ ေ၀ဖန္ေဆြးေႏြးα€›α€™α€š္။ ထျမင္α€€ို ပြင့္ပြင့္α€œα€„္းα€œα€„္း တင္ျα€•α€›α€™α€š္။ ထဲα€œိုα€™α€Ÿုတ္ပဲ ေခါင္းေဆာင္ၾကီးဆိုျပီး ပုα€‚α‚Žၢဳα€œ္ေα€›း α€€ိုးα€€ြα€š္α€™ွဳေတြα€Ÿာ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္α€€ို ေႏွာင့္ေႏွးေစတတ္α€α€š္။ တခုα€€ α€’ီα€œိုα€€ိုးα€€ြα€š္ခံα€›α€žူေတြ α€™α€›ွိေတာ့တဲ့ထခါ ျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္တရပ္α€œံုး α€€ေα€žာင္းကနင္းျα€–α€…္α€žြားတတ္တာျα€–α€…္ျပီး၊ ေα€”ာα€€္တမ်ိဳးα€€ေတာ့ “α€™α€™ွားေα€žာေα€›ွα‚•ေα€”၊ α€™ေα€žေα€žာေဆးα€žα€™ား“ ဆိုα€žα€œိုပဲ α€žူတိုα‚•α€›ဲα‚• α€™ွားေနတဲ့ ထေတြးထေα€αš၊ α€œုပ္ရပ္ေတြα€€ို α€œိုα€€္ပါ α€œုပ္ေဆာင္α€™ိတာျα€–α€…္α€α€š္။ 

α€’ီα€œို α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€…α€”α€…္ထျα€™α€…္တြα€š္ခိုင္α€™ာေα€›းα€€ို ထေႏွာင့္α€‘α€šွα€€္ျα€–α€…္ေစတဲ့ ထေၾကာင္းရင္းေတြα€€ို ေα€€်ာ္α€œႊားႏိုင္ျပီး democratic consolidation ထဆင့္α€€ို ျဖတ္α€žα€”္းျပီးတဲ့ထခါ expansion to post-representative democracy ဆိုတဲ့ ထဆင့္α€€ိုေα€›ာα€€္ပါα€α€š္။ α€’ီထဆင့္α€€ေတာ့ ႏိုင္ငံတကာ governance system α€€ို democratic reform ျα€–α€…္ေα€›းေတြα€”ဲα‚• ႏိ္ုင္ငံေတာ္ထဆင့္α€™ွာ participatory democracy, deliberative democracy ေတြα€€ို α€…α€™္းα€žα€•္ထေα€€ာင္α€‘α€‘α€Š္ေα€–ာ္ျပီး representative democracy α€€ို transcend α€œုပ္တာျα€–α€…္ပါα€α€š္။ 


α€”ိဂံုး 

ထခုေဆာင္းပါးα€™ွာ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီα€‘α€žြင္α€€ူးေျပာင္းα€™ွဳα€žα‚‘ာα€”္ေတြα€”ဲα‚• ပတ္α€žα€€္ျပီး α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္မစခင္α€™ွာ preconditions ေတြထေα€”α€”ဲα‚• α€…ီးပြားေα€›း၊ α€œူα€™ွဳေα€›းတိုးတက္α€™ွဳေတြ α€œိုထပ္α€α€š္ဆိုတဲ့ modernization α€žီထိုα€›ီα€”ဲα‚• α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳα€€ေα€” Elite ေတြေα€•αšα€‘ြα€€္α€œာျပီး Initial democratization စတင္ႏိုင္α€™α€š့္ transitology တိုα‚•α€€ို ေဆြးေႏြးထားပါα€α€š္။ α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳα€”ဲα‚• α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္တို႕ထၾကားα€€ ဆက္ႏြα€š္α€™ွဳေတြα€”ဲα‚• ေျပာင္းα€œဲα€™ွဳျα€–α€…္α€…α€₯္ ထဆင့္ဆင့္α€€ို တင္ျပထားα€žα€œို α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ α€…α€”α€…္ ထျα€™α€…္တြα€š္ခိုင္α€™ာα€™ွဳα€€ို ထေႏွာင့္α€‘α€šွα€€္ျα€–α€…္ေα€…α€™α€š့္ ထေၾကာင္းရင္းေတြα€€ို α€‘α€Š့္α€žြင္းေဆြးေႏြးထားပါα€α€š္။ တျခားα€™ူα€€ြဲα€žα‚‘ာα€”္တခုျα€–α€…္တဲ့ political liberalization ထေၾကာင္းα€€ိုေတာ့ α€œူထုα€œွဳပ္α€›ွားα€™ွဳα€”ဲα‚• α€™α€žα€€္ဆိုင္တဲ့ထတြα€€္ α€‘α€Š့္α€žြင္းေဆြးေႏြးထားျခင္းα€™α€›ွိပါα€˜ူး။ Political liberalization α€€ေα€” democratic consolidation α€€ို α€€ူးေျပာင္းရတဲ့ α€’ီα€™ိုα€€ေα€›α€…ီ α€‘α€žြင္α€€ူးေျပာင္းα€™ွဳပံုα€žα‚‘ာα€”္α€›ဲα‚• ထားα€žာခ်α€€္၊ ထားα€”α€Š္းခ်α€€္ေတြα€€ို ေတာ့ ေα€”ာα€€္ထပ္ေဆာင္းပါးတခုα€™ွာ ဆက္α€œα€€္တင္ျပေပးပါα€™α€š္။ 
ခင္α€™α€™α€™်ိဳး (၁၊ ၈၊ ၂၀၀၉) 

α€›α€Š္α€Šြα€”္းα€€ိုးα€€ား- 
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By :Yangon Press International

“ႏိုင္ငံေα€›း ထက်α€₯္းα€žားα€™်ား α€œြတ္ေျα€™ာα€€္ေα€›း α€œႈပ္α€›ွားα€™ႈ” ထဖြဲα‚•ေခါင္းα€…α€₯္ျဖင့္ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›း ထက်α€₯္းα€žားα€™ိα€žားα€…ု၀င္α€™်ား ထိα€™္α€žိုα‚” α€žြားေα€›ာα€€္ထားေပးα€žα€Š့္ α€œႈပ္α€›ွားα€™ႈα€€ို α€šေန႔စတင္α€œိုα€€္α€žα€Š္။

α€šα€ုα€œႈပ္α€›ွားα€™ႈတြင္ ထက်α€₯္းα€žားα€™ိα€žားα€…ု α€€ြα€”္α€›α€€္၊ Generation Wave ၊ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›း ထက်α€₯္းα€žားေα€Ÿာင္းα€™်ား၊ ၈၈ α€™်ိဳးဆက္ေα€€်ာင္းα€žားα€™်ား ထဖြဲ႕တိုα‚”α€™ွ ပါ၀င္α€žα€Š္။ α€”ံα€”α€€္ ၈ α€”ာα€›ီ ၃၀ တြင္ တာေα€™ြα€•α€œာဇာေα€›ွα‚•α€™ွ α€œူထင္ထား ၁၀၀ ၀န္းα€€်င္ခန္α‚”ျဖင့္ စတင္ထြα€€္ခြာထြα€€္ခြာαΎα€€α€žα€Š္။ ပထမဦးဆံုး တာေα€™ြα€—α€œီထနီးα€›ွိ ဦးေα€€်ာ္မင္း (CRPP ထဖြဲ႕၀င္) ထိα€™္α€žိုα‚” α€žြားေα€›ာα€€္α€žα€Š္α€Ÿု α€žိα€›α€žα€Š္။ ေα€”ာα€€္ထပ္ ႏိုင္ငံေα€›း ထက်α€₯္းα€žား ၁၅ ဦး၏ ေနထိα€™္α€™်ားα€žိုα‚” α€žြားေα€›ာα€€္α€™α€Š္α€Ÿု α€žိα€›α€žα€Š္။ 










α€šေα€”α‚” α€”ံα€”α€€္ပိုင္းα€€ ဦးေα€€်ာ္မင္း (CRPP ထဖြဲ႔၀င္) ၏ ေဆြα€™်ိဳး ဦးေα€€်ာ္ဇံထား ႏိုင္ငံေα€›းထက်α€₯္းα€žားα€œြတ္ေျα€™ာα€€္ေα€›းα€œႈပ္α€›ွားα€™ႈထဖြဲြα‚”α€™ွ
ေတြ႔ဆံုထားေပးα€…α€€ား ေျပာဆိုေနၾကစα€₯္ (ဓာတ္ပံု - Yangon Press International)





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Rohingya Exodus