ယေန႔ကာလ စစ္အုပ္စု၏ လက္နက္ကိုင္ ေတာ္လွန္ေရးအင္အားစုမ်ားႏွင့္ အပစ္အခတ္ရပ္စဲေရးအတြက္ ေဆာင္ရြက္ေနမႈမ်ားသည္ ႏိုင္ငံေရးျပႆနာမ်ားကို ေတြ႔ဆံုေဆြးေႏြး အေျဖရွာေရးကို ဦးတည္ေသာ ႀကိဳးပမ္းမႈမဟုတ္ဟု ႐ႈျမင္သည္။ တိုင္းရင္းသား လက္နက္ကိုင္ ေတာ္လွန္ေရးအင္အားစုမ်ားအတြင္း ဖဲ့ထုတ္ စည္းရံုးႏုိင္ေရးအတြက္ ႀကိဳးပမ္းေနမႈမ်ားသာ ျဖစ္သည္။

ထို႔ေၾကာင့္ စစ္မွန္ေသာ ျပည္တြင္းၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရးကို ေဖာ္ေဆာင္ႏုိင္ေရးအတြက္ -
- တျပည္လံုးအတုိင္းအတာေဆာင္ေသာ အပစ္အခတ္ရပ္စဲေရးကို ထုတ္ျပန္ရမည္။
- ႏုိင္ငံေရးအရ ေတြ႔ဆံုေဆြးေႏြးသြားရန္ တိက်ေသာအခ်ိန္ကာလသတ္မွတ္ခ်က္ ႏွင့္ လုပ္ငန္းစဥ္မ်ား ပါရွိရမည္။

အထူးသျဖင့္ စစ္မွန္ေသာ ၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရး၊ ဒီမိုကေရစီေရး၊ အမ်ဳိးသားတန္းတူေရးႏွင့္ ကိုယ္ပိုင္ျပဌာန္းခြင့္ ရရွိေရးအတြက္ တုိက္ပြဲ၀င္ေနေသာ လက္နက္ကိုင္ ေတာ္လွန္ေရး အဖြဲ႔အစည္းမ်ား ႏုိင္ငံေရးအရ ပါ၀င္ႏုိင္သည့္ လုပ္ငန္းစဥ္ႏွင့္ ေဆြးေႏြးအေျဖရွာမႈမ်ားကို ဆက္လက္ ေဆာင္ရြက္သြားရန္ လိုအပ္သည္။

ဗဟိုေကာ္မတီ
ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံလံုးဆိုင္ရာ ေက်ာင္းသားမ်ား ဒီမိုကရက္တစ္ တပ္ဦး (ေက်ာင္းသားတပ္မေတာ္)။

ရက္စြဲ ၂၀၁၁ ခုႏွစ္၊ ႏိုဝင္ဘာ ၈ ရက္။

 

 

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IF most Western pundits are to be believed, fundamental change is taking place in Burma.

After holding a seriously flawed referendum in May 2008 on a new constitution that gives the country's military controlling powers, and holding an election last November condemned by the West as rigged, Burma's new government has stunned the world by taking steps towards what appears to be more openness.

Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been freed from house arrest; she and new President Thein Sein have been meeting; strict censorship rules have been relaxed; and on Tuesday the release of thousands of prisoners began.

More importantly, Burma suspended a $US3.6 billion mega-dam joint project with China in the north of the country.

According to the view of the same Western observers, recent developments may also reflect a power struggle between "hardliners" and "reform-minded liberals" within the government and the military that controls it.
Free trial

But reality is far more complicated. Firstly, the new constitution and elections were not intended to change the basic power structure but to institutionalise it.

Once the new parliament and other institutions were in place, and the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party had secured an absolute parliamentary majority and formed a new, seemingly legitimate, government, concessions were expected.

Suu Kyi's release had been announced before the election, and there had been talks about prisoner releases and an amnesty for Burmese exiles.

The concessions went much further than that when the military discovered that Suu Kyi, despite her long house arrest, was as popular as ever. Nor had her party, the National League for Democracy, disappeared despite being dissolved in May last year.

At the same time, a powerful, popular movement was growing against the controversial dam project at Myitsone in the northern Kachin State. The dam would have flooded an area bigger than Singapore and 90 per cent of the electricity was to be exported to China.

And it would have seriously harmed the Irrawaddy River, the nation's economic as well as cultural artery. There was a potential for an upheaval that could have threatened the unity of the armed forces. The government had to act to prevent the public and elements of the military joining forces.

China has been Burma's closest economic, political and military ally since the pro-democracy uprising of 1988. But it has been an uneasy alliance, as many Burmese army officers have not forgotten that China for decades supported the insurgent Communist Party of Burma.

Even today, China maintains cordial relations with the United Wa State Army, a successor to the CPB, which in 1989 made a ceasefire agreement with the Burmese government.

Chinese duplicity was bad enough; robbing the country of its natural resources was seen as even worse. By suspending the controversial dam project, Thein Sein has taken the wind out of the sails of this movement and weathered the storm many were waiting for - at the same time as the suspension, not cancellation, of Myitsone leaves open the door for negotiations with China.

Thein Sein has skilfully played "the China Card" with the West.

In Washington, on September 29, Burmese Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin met Derek Mitchell, the newly appointed US co-ordinator on Burma; Kurt Campbell, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs; and Michael Posner, a specialist in human rights.

The next day, the government decided to suspend the dam until 2015. At the same time, ongoing talks with Suu Kyi are meant to "tame" the NLD and persuade it to "return to the legal fold", as the government always terms it.

Some Rangoon-based sources even suggest the aim of the government could be to form a USDP-NLD coalition after the next, 2015 election. Consequently, the US is showing signs of softening its hard stance against Burma.

The US position will be eroded totally once the NLD is re-registered and all political prisoners are released. Then, sanctions are likely to be eased if not completely lifted. The EU will give in even earlier.

Apart from trying to neutralise the NLD, releasing prisoners and inviting emigres to return, the government is also attempting to revitalise the economy. Economic progress is seen as vital for regime survival, and to have US and EU sanctions lifted will serve that purpose.

In order to be "re-admitted" into the global community, and break its diplomatic and economic isolation from the West, Thein Sein's government is said to have set three other high-profile goals which would improve its international reputation: to host the Southeast Asian Games, which are scheduled to be held in Naypyidaw, Burma's new capital, in 2013; to assume the chairmanship of ASEAN in 2014; and the 2015 election.

It is likely to succeed in these endeavours, and the economy will most probably benefit as well from more interaction with and acceptance by the West.

Some economic liberalisation could also follow, but major political reforms are unlikely. The new constitution has enough safeguards to protect the military and its ultimate grip on power.

Despite the new honeymoon with the West, Burma is unlikely to shake off its dependence on China. And recent changes are unlikely to alter the country's fundamental power structure with the military effectively in command. The sad truth is that there is no "step-by-step" process in motion that would lead to real democracy in Burma.

Bertil Lintner is a Thailand-based correspondent for the Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet and author of several books on Burma.

Credit : Here
 

One year has gone and things are looking bright but no one should forget that the moon has its dark side too, according to sources to a number of top Naypyitaw officials, who claim Senior General Than Shwe who was supposed to have put himself out to pasture is still the real power especially when it comes to military affairs.

Senior General Than Shwe
"President Thein Sein wants the country to return to peace through negotiations," the source who, as a former businessman, is close to bigwigs in the new capital. "But he still have little say in military matters."

New military campaigns that were waged against the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), Shan State Army (SSA) North and Kachin Independence Army (KIA), groups that had concluded ceasefire pacts with Naypyitaw, were reportedly ordered by him. Before November 2010, the Burma Army had been fighting only with the Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and the Shan State Army (SSA) South.

Even after new ceasefire pacts had been signed in September with the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), their requests for the Burma Army to withdraw to their pre 2009 lines went unheeded. (The Burma Army built up new bases around the two allies' areas after they turned down its April 2009 proposal to transform themselves into Burma Army-run Border Guard Forces.

The SSA North, during the 29 October peace talks, also reportedly requested the withdrawal of 4 new Burma Army bases around its Wanhai headquarters in Kehsi township. The Burmese delegates accordingly took note and promised a prompt response which never came. "All these show the final decision still rests with the Senior General," he said.

According Irrawaddy's Wai Moe, the Senior General who was said to have retired in March is still addressed as "Tat Choke" (Commander in Chief), while his successor Gen Min Aung Hlaing is being hailed as "Ka Choke" (Defense Chief).

A veteran newsman agreed. "Min Aung Hlaing is to Than Shwe what Saw Maung (the general who took power in 1988)," he said. "Outwardly Saw Maung was running the show. But it was U Ne Win who was directing things from behind the curtains."

A senior official also wrote to the effect in Bangkok Post, 27 September, that the "open minded officials" could not go too fast, if they did, they might end up in jail.

"Every silver lining has a cloud," the veteran newsman told SHAN.

Credi : Shanland

၂၀၀၈ အေျခခံဥပေဒ ရဲ ့အႏွစ္သာရတခုလံုးက ကန့္သတ္မႈနဲ ့ ပိတ္ပင္မႈ ျဖစ္တယ္။ ကန္ ့သတ္မႈက ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္ ကို ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲမ၀င္နိင္ေအာင္၊ ျမန္မာ နိင္ငံကိုဦးေဆာင္ခြင့္မရ
ေအာင္၊ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲမႈေတြမလုပ္နိင္ေအာင္ပါ။ ပိတ္ပင္မႈက လူထု အတြက္ ဒီမိုကေရစီနဲ ့လူ ့အခြင့္အေရး
ေတြ မရေအာင္ ပိတ္ပင္ထားတာ။ ပုဒ္မ ၅၉(ခ) မွာ ဆိုရင္ သမတ၊ ဒုသမတ ရဲ ့ သူေရာ၊ သူခင္ပြန္း၊သားသမီး၊
ေခြ်းမ၊သားမက္ ပါ နိင္ငံျခားသားမျဖစ္ရလို ့ပါတယ္။ သူကိုယ္တိုင္က နိ္င္ငံျခားသားမျဖစ္ရ ဆိုတာေတာ့ၾကား
ေကာင္းပါတယ္။ ဘာေၾကာင့္ ခင္ပြန္း၊ သားသမီးနဲ ့ ေခ်ြးမ၊သားမက္ေတြအထိ ျခည္ေနာင္ထားသလဲ။
က်ဥ္းေျမာင္းတဲ့အေျခခံဥပေဒျဖစ္ေနပါတယ္။


ပုဒ္မ ၅၉ ( ဃ) မွာေတာ့ သမတ ဟာ စစ္ေရးအျမင္ရိွရမယ္လို ့ဆိုပါတယ္။ စဥ္းစားၾကည့္ပါဦး
သမတအိုဘားမားက စစ္တပ္ကလာတာမွမဟုတ္တာ။ တရုပ္သမတ - ဟူက်င္းေတာင္လဲစစ္သားမဟုတ္။
ဒါေပမဲ့သူတို ့ဟာအေျခခံဥပေဒအရ သမတျဖစ္လာတာနဲ ့ တပ္မေတာ္ရဲ ့ စစ္ေသနာပတိေတြ၊ စစ္ေကာ္မရွင္ဥကၠဌ ေတြျဖစ္လာတာပဲ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။


ပုဒ္မ ၂၀၃ မွာေတာ့ ေဒၚစုက သာလြတ္ေတာ္အမတ္ျဖစ္လာရင္ အစိုးရအဖြဲ ့မွာ ၀န္ၾကီးေနရာတခုခုကိုယူခဲ့
ရရင္ သူဟာ အမ်ိဳးသားဒီမိုကေရစီအဖြဲ ့ခ်ဳပ္က ႏႈတ္ထြက္ရမယ္။ ၾကပ္ေျပးမွာသြားေနေနရမယ္။


ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲပါတီမ်ား မွတ္ပံုတင္ျခင္းဆိုင္ရာဥပေဒမွာေတာ့ ပါတီကိုမွတ္ပံုျပန္တင္ရင္
ေဒၚစုနဲ ့ ပါတီေခါင္းေဆာင္ ၁၅ ဦးဟာလက္မွတ္ထိုးရမယ္။ မွတ္ပံုတင္ဥပေဒပုဒ္မ ၄၊၅၊၆ ဆိုတာေတြနဲ ့ရင္ဆိုင္ရမယ္။ ဒါေတြက က်ေနာ္ေတာ္၊က်ြန္မ တို ့သည္ ၂၀၀၈ အေျခခံဥပေဒကို
ေလးစားလိုက္နာပါမည္ ဆိုတဲ့ ခံ၀န္ ကတိကို လက္မွတ္ထိုးၾကရပါလိမ့္မယ္။


တကယ္က ၂၀၀၈ အေျခခံဥပေဒဟာ သန္းေရႊက လမ္းညြန္ ေပးခဲ့ျပီး ထြန္ရွင္နဲ ့ေသာင္းညြန္ ့ဆိုတဲ့
ေရွ ့ေန နစ္ေယာက္က ေရးခဲ့တာပါ။ သူတို ့ဟာ သာမန္ ေရွ ေန ေတြမ်ွသာျဖစ္ျပီး
အေျခခံဥပေဒ ေရးဆြဲ တဲ့ ေရွ ့ေနမဟုတ္ၾကပါဘူး။ အေျခခံဥပေဒတိုင္းက လူထုကိုကာကြယ္ေပးျပီး
အစိုးရကို ဖိိနိပ္မႈေတြမလုပ္နိင္ေအာင္ ကန္ ့သတ္ၾကတာပါ ။ ျမန္မာ ျပည္အေျခခံဥပေဒက ေတာ့
ေျပာင္းျပန္ျဖစ္ေနတယ္။ လူေတြကိုဖိနိပ္ခ်ဳပ္ျခယ္ျပီး သူတို ့က လြတ္လပ္စြာအာဏာကို အလြဲသံုးစား
ျပဳခြင့္ေတြယူထားတဲ့ဥပေဒျဖစ္ေနပါတယ္။ ၂၀၈၈ အေျခခံဥပေဒကို လံုး၀ လက္ခံလို ့မရ ဘူးဆိုတာကို
အၾကံျပဳလိုပါတယ္။


Credit  :မိုးသီးဇြန္

1. A dialogue was started with the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, but no visible agreement has been publicized by either of the two sides. Suu Kyi said that a time frame is needed to explain to the people what kind of discussion she and the Thein Sein regime had. Suu Kyi is concerned that not reporting of this discussion to the people will be counterproductive, the people need to know what kind of understanding she achieved as a result of the discussion.
2. The Myitsone Dam project with China has been stopped, but this halt is not a total cancellation of the project. It is only a postponement until the next administration begins in 2015.
3. Restriction on journals and publications were eased, but not totally. The censorship board is still in existence and is still operating. The emergence of independent newspapers is still not acceptable to the new administration.
4. Restriction on the Internet was also eased, but not totally. In Burma, the Internet is still very slow, and there are many delays and dropped lines.

1. They refuse to release political prisoners, and refuse to admit that there are political prisoners in Burma’s prisons.
2. The Hluttaw has no power to make democratic changes, because such proposals were screened from the agendas by the chairmen of both the upper and the lower houses. Most reform proposals were rejected before they could be put on the agendas for discussion of the floor.
3. The cease fire agreements with the Kachin, Karen (DKBA) and Shans broke down, and intense fighting continues to the present.