What Will Suu Kyi Do If She Wins?

Speculation has been building in recent weeks that Ms. Suu Kyi will be rewarded with a senior role in the government – including possibly a ministerial post looking out for health or education – if she wins as expected in Myanmar’s upcoming April 1 parliamentary by-elections. For Ms. Suu Kyi, such a post would have been almost unthinkable as recently as a few months ago – especially after she spent much of the past 20 years under house arrest – and would give her a stronger voice in the government on issues she cares about, including public health.

It would also potentially help Myanmar’s leaders, earning further kudos for President Thein Sein after a year of reforms, including the legalization of Ms. Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy political party and the release of scores of political prisoners. That, in turn, could help accelerate Western governments’ moves towards easing economic sanctions against the country, analysts say.

But as Ms. Suu Kyi campaigns around the country for herself and other NLD candidates — drawing tens of thousands of people to her rallies in recent weeks– some political observers are starting to question whether she’ll accept a senior role. Ms. Suu Kyi herself has sent mixed messages on the subject.

The famed dissident has been quoted in some dissident news publications suggesting she might be interested in a cabinet post, depending on the circumstances. But speaking to students at Ottawa’s Carleton University via a video link late last month, she said it would be “rather presumptuous” to speculate on a cabinet position right now, according to reports of her comments published by Reuters news agency.

“I can tell you one thing – that under the present constitution, if you become a member of the government you have to vacate your seat in the national assembly. And I am not working so hard to get into parliament simply to vacate my seat,” she added.

Reached by phone late Monday, NLD spokesman Nyan Win said he had asked the Nobel laureate whether she would agree to a senior post, and was told “no offer, no answer,” which he says is now the party’s official position. He also repeated her concerns about how she might be forced to yield her parliamentary seat, and possibly her role as the head of the NLD, if she agrees to take on a cabinet role.

Efforts to reach the Myanmar government for comment were unsuccessful.

Everything could change, of course, if Ms. Suu Kyi is wooed by Mr. Thein Sein or promised wide-ranging policy powers.

But some analysts are starting to conclude it would be a strategic mistake for Ms. Suu Kyi to take a cabinet or advisory post unless major changes in the country’s constitution are pushed through to let her stay in parliament as well. Taking on a more senior post could open Ms. Suu Kyi to criticism from dissidents that she’s growing too close to the country’s military-backed government, which despite the reforms of the past year is still accused of human rights violations.

It could also deprive her of the ability to forge her own base of political support in Myanmar’s parliament ahead of much larger national elections expected in 2015. The April vote is being held to fill just 48 legislative seats that were vacated earlier by lawmakers promoted to ministerial posts. Even if the NLD party sweeps all the seats – including the southern Yangon district where Ms. Suu Kyi is running – it wouldn’t greatly affect the composition of parliament, which has more than 600 positions. The 2015 vote, if it is free and fair, would offer a much more realistic shot for the opposition to gain significant power in government.

Despite her age – she’s 66 – Ms. Suu Kyi is “thinking of 2015 – she’s thinking of the long game,” said David Mathieson, a Myanmar expert at Human Rights Watch in Thailand who questions whether Ms. Suu Kyi would want to be in the country’s cabinet.

For now Ms. Suu Kyi appears to be taking pains to avoid being seen as too cozy with Naypyitaw, the Myanmar capital. Ms. Suu Kyi and her party have criticized the government for several election-related problems in recent weeks, including steps by the government to make NLD leaders excise part of their party platform before reading it out on state-run radio and television because it cast the military in a bad light.

Ms. Suu Kyi also complained last week that official voter lists for the by-elections include dead people.

Myanmar officials have said they are considering the possibility of allowing outside observers to ensure the vote is free and fair, but it remains unclear whether they will do so.

- Celine Fernandez contributed to this report.